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We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database. The selection is made against the close price for the company. For example if you selected Analyst Consensus we look for companies that have an average Analyst Consensus value greater than the close price for the select date indicated.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price Comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.
We source our primary financial data (balance sheets, income statements, price and ratios) from Morningstar and build our models on top of that data. We have other feeds for our ETF and mutual fund data.
Over the last 8 years, our valuations have been correct 78% of the time going out 12 months. We refer to this as our success rate, meaning that our valuation is reached 78% of the time over the next 12 months. There is an average of 10.2% difference between close price and our valuation.
In addition to valuing over 8,000 stocks every night, each week we value over 2,000 ETFs, and 150 industries.
At any point in the last 5 years, about half of the 8,000 stocks we analyze showed as overvalued. Events such as COVID-19 caused the majority of those undervalued stocks to be shown as correct. We also found many stocks to be significantly undervalued by early April 2020, the largest showing in our analysis’ history.
We currently cover the NYSE, NASDAQ, American Stock Exchange, Toronto and TSX Venture exchanges. We are developing data for other exchanges around the world and will notify customers when other exchanges are available. If you are interested in our valuation data for a specific region, please express your interest by contacting us at info@stockcalc.com.
Financial Advisors who understand and use fundamental analysis can benefit greatly from the platform, allowing them to better manage relationships with their clients. Financial Analysts use stockcalc to quickly run sensitivity analyses to build model portfolios.
Our platform is available through TD Ameritrade's Veo Open Access, Schwab Advisors, and the Globe and Mail. Individual investors and firms can also sign up directly on our website.
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