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GoGold Resources (GGD:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

This Analyst style Report was generated using the tools available on the Stockcalc.com website.
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Valuation Summary:

GoGold Resources$0.84 (CAD) Close Price as of01/03/2017

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, GoGold Resources, (GGD:TSE) is found to be (refer below to each of the models for detailed calculations and assumptions). Use a conversion rate of 1.3505 from USD to CAD.

Discounted Cash Flow

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $1.78 (USD) for GGD:TSE
Details of the DCF model are shown below
Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $1.98 (CAD) for GGD:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $1.02 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.

The comparable companies were Erdene Resource Dev (ERD:TSE), Excellon Resources (EXN:TSE), Nautilus Minerals (NUS:TSE), Select Sands (SNS:TSX) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN:TSE)

Details of the Comparables Model are shown below
Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of $1.11 (CAD) for GGD:TSE

Details of the Multiples Model are shown below
Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

Using an Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book we generated a value of $0.83 (USD) for GGD:TSE

Details of the Adjusted Book Value Model are shown below
Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for GGD:TSE.
The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for GGD:TSE for 2017 of $1.10 (USD).

Details of the Analyst Data are shown below
Summary

If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=B63CF04C210D469A8898D1CA689352F0

Company Overview (GGD:TSE CAD)

Bid:Ask	0.67:0.69
Price	0.67
Change %Change	+0.00 – +0.00%
Day Range	0.65 – 0.68
52 Week Range	0.41 – 1.65
Open Price	0.66
Day Volume	204986
Average Volume	519538
P/E Ratio
Diluted EPS	-0.11
Shares Outstanding	171376481
Market Cap	114,822,242

Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

GoGold Resources Inc is engaged in the discovery, exploration and development of gold, silver and copper deposits in Mexico. The Company’s projects include San Diego, Santa Gertrudis and Parral.

Financial Data for GGD:TSE

The following presents the last up to 5 years of the companies Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow data.

Income Statement


Line Item USD Thousands	2014-9-30	2014-9-30	2014-9-30	2015-9-30	2016-9-30
Total Revenue	0	0	0	12,521	16,701
Cost Of Revenue	0	0	0	7,039	11,047
Gross Profit	0	0	0	5,482	5,654
Selling General And Administration	3,142	3,142	3,142	3,592	4,711
Research And Development	0	0	0	0	0
EBITDA	-3,088	-3,088	-3,088	-1,441	-15,611
Depreciation and Amortization	48	54	54	0	0
Operating Expense	3,142	3,142	3,142	3,592	4,711
Operating Income	-3,142	-3,142	-3,142	1,890	943
EBIT	-3,142	-3,142	-3,142	-3,805	-19,369
Interest Income	0	0	0	0	0
Interest Expense	0	0	0	1,879	1,886
Pre-Tax Income	-4,907	-4,907	-4,907	-5,684	-21,255
Tax Provision	2,300	2,300	2,300	398	-718
Net Income	-7,207	-7,207	-7,207	-6,082	-20,537

Diluted Average Shares	138,890	138,890	138,890	159,591	165,086
Diluted EPS	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.13

Balance Sheet


Line Item USD Thousands	2013-9-30	2014-9-30	2014-9-30	2015-9-30	2016-9-30
Total Assets	112,449	135,225	150,935	140,596	140,651
Current Assets	31,552	12,709	14,186	16,796	29,662
Cash And Cash Equivalents	31,114	3,423	3,821	2,721	2,091
Other Short Term Investments	0	0	0	0	0
Receivables	341	6,314	7,048	1,736	3,154
Inventory	0	1,514	1,690	11,090	24,191
PrepaidAssets	96	1,458	1,628	1,249	226
Deferred Income Taxes	0	0	0	0	0
Other Current Assets	0	0	0	0	0
Total Non Current Assets	80,897	122,515	136,749	123,800	110,989
Gross PPE	80,974	122,636	136,884	122,677	114,434
Accumulated Depreciation	-78	-121	-135	-5,112	-13,139
Net PPE	80,897	122,515	136,749	117,565	101,295
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	0
Intangibles	0	0	0	0	0
Other Non Current Assets	0	0	0	0	0

Total liabilities	15,705	37,401	41,746	36,740	52,553
Current Liabilities	2,879	16,686	18,624	5,803	48,703
Payables	1,629	2,995	3,343	5,629	13,563
Current debt	1,250	13,091	14,612	0	35,077
Current capital lease obligation	0	0	0	0	0
Other current liabilities	0	0	0	0	0
Non Current Liabilities	12,826	20,715	23,122	30,937	3,850
Long Term Debt	12,422	17,253	19,258	27,357	0
Long Term Capital Lease	0	0	0	0	0
Other Non Current Liabilities	0	0	0	0	0
Total Equity	96,744	97,824	109,189	103,856	88,098
Stockholders Equity	96,744	97,824	109,189	103,856	88,098
Preferred Stock	0	0	0	0	0
CapitalStock	0	0	0	0	0
Common Stock	0	0	0	0	0
Treasury Stock	0	0	0	0	0
Retained Earnings	-7,733	-13,747	-15,344	-20,726	-41,263
Other Equity	0	0	0	0	0
Total Liabilities and Total Equity	112,449	135,225	150,935	140,596	140,651

Cash Flow


Line Item USD Thousands	2013-9-30	2014-9-30	2014-9-30	2015-9-30	2016-9-30
Net Income	-3,643	-6,457	-7,207	-6,082	-20,537
Depreciation and amortization	31	48	54	0	0
Amortization of debt discount/premium and issuance costs	0	0	0	0	0
Investment/asset impairment charges	715	0	0	0	20,030
Investments losses (gains)	0	0	0	0	0
Deferred income taxes	15	1,926	2,150	491	-755
Stock based compensation	641	277	309	205	362
Accounts receivable	0	0	0	0	728
Inventory	0	0	0	0	-11,715
Prepaid expenses	0	0	0	0	-43
Accounts payable	0	0	0	0	0
Accrued liabilities	0	0	0	0	0
Income Tax Payable	0	0	0	0	37
Interest payable	0	0	0	0	0
Other working capital	0	0	0	0	0
Other non-cash items	959	-6,473	-7,225	1,361	8,895

Net cash provided by operating activities	-1,282	-10,678	-11,919	-4,025	-2,998

Investments in property, plant, and equipment	-10,930	-32,956	-36,785	-9,606	-13,365
Property, plant, and equipment reductions	0	0	0	0	0
Acquisitions, net	0	-4,776	-5,331	0	0
Purchases of investments	0	0	0	0	0
Sales/Maturities of investments	0	0	0	0	0
Other investing activities	0	0	0	0	0

Net cash used for investing activities	-10,930	-37,732	-42,116	-9,606	-13,365

Debt issued	0	14,803	16,523	27,315	13,500
Debt repayment	0	0	0	-31,323	-6,000
Common stock issued	4,537	0	0	16,194	7,454
Preferred stock issued	0	0	0	0	0
Cash dividends paid	0	0	0	0	0
Other financing activities	14,060	8,311	9,276	1,173	844

Net cash provided by, used for activities	18,598	23,114	25,799	13,359	15,798

Effect of exchange rates	0	844	942	-419	-65
Net change in cash	6,386	-25,297	-28,236	-272	-630
Cash at beginning of period	24,728	27,876	31,114	3,412	2,721
Cash at end of period	31,114	3,423	3,821	2,721	2,091
Operating cash flow	-1,282	-10,678	-11,919	-4,025	-2,998
Capital expenditure	-10,930	-32,956	-36,785	-9,606	-13,365
Free cash flow	-12,212	-43,634	-48,704	-13,631	-16,363

Ratio Data for GGD:TSE

Profitability Ratios


Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Gross Margin (%)				43.78	33.85
Operation Margin (%)				15.09	5.65
Tax Rate (%)
Net Margin (%)				-48.57	-122.97
Sales per Employee				131800	146500
EBIT Margin (%)				-30.39	-115.98
EBITDA Margin (%)				-11.51	-93.47
Net Profit Margin (%)				-48.57	-122.97
Interest Coverage				-2.03	-10.27

Efficiency Ratios


Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Days In Sales				35.53	17.06
Days In Inventory				326.78	582.85
Days In Payment				219.05	315.11
Cash Conversion Cycle				143.26	284.8
Receivable Turnover				10.27	21.4
Inventory Turnover				1.12	0.63
Payment Turnover				1.67	1.16
Fixed Assets Turnover				0.1	0.15
Assets Turnover				0.09	0.12
ROE (%)	-4.29	-3.7	-6.74	-6.03	-21.4
ROA (%)	-4.1	-3.41	-5.29	-4.41	-14.6
ROIC (%)	-4.29	-3.46	-5.49	-3.52	-12.93
FCF Sales Ratio (%)
FCF Net Income Ratio (%)
Capital Expenditure Sales Ratio (%)				76.72	80.03

Financial Health


Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Current Ratio	29.6	10.96	0.76	2.89	0.61
Quick Ratio	29.56	10.93	0.58	0.77	0.11
Long Term Debt Total Capital Ratio (%)		11.38	14.99	20.85
Long Term Debt Equity Ratio		0.13	0.18	0.26
Financial Leverage	1.01	1.16	1.38	1.35	1.6
Total Debt To Equity Ratio		0.14	0.31	0.26	0.4

Valuation Ratios


Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Sustainable Growth Rate (%)	-7.67	-6.58	-4.99	-5.57	-22.56
Payout Ratio (%)	0	0	0	0	0
Cash Return	-0.03	-0.11	-0.16	-0.11	-0.09
Sales Per Share	0	0	0	0.06	0.15
Book Value Per Share	0.16	0.69	0.79	0.89	0.68
CFO Per Share	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	-0.01
FCF Per Share	-0.1	-0.11	-0.33	-0.16	-0.12
Earning Yield (%)	-1.84	-1.98	-1.82	-2.77	-19.58
PE Ratio
Sales Yield (%)	0	0	0	5.16	16.38
PS Ratio				19.37	6.1
Book Value Yield (%)	10.35	65.91	44.68	71.51	72.64
PB Ratio	9.66	1.52	2.24	1.4	1.38
CF Yield (%)	-1.99	-1.83	-1.2	-9.52	-1.26
PCF Ratio
FCF Yield (%)	-6.89	-10.77	-18.62	-12.99	-13.07
FCF Ratio
Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Dividend Yield (%)
Forward Earning Yield (%)				9.55	6.97
Forward PE Ratio				10.47	14.35
PEG Ratio
PEG Payback
Dividend Rate
Working Capital Per Share	0.01	0.11	0.01	-0.06	0.15
EV To EBITDA	-119.15	-32.13	-119.77
Buy Back Yield (%)			0
Total Yield (%)			0

Valuation Details and Assumptions

Cost of Capital

We have calculated the WACC for GGD:TSE to be 8.789 based on the following assumptions:

Component

Value

Cost Of

Common Equity

121677301

9.688

Debt (Book Value)

35077000

5.6

Preferred (Book Value)

Enterprise Value

156754301

100

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

WACC

8.789

The Company’s Beta was calculated as 0.649 using a 60 month time frame and the S&P/TSX index.

Note: Higher risk premiums imply investors require greater returns

The Company’s Cost of Preferred equity was calculated using the preferred stock dividend divided by the book value of prefrerred shares for the company

The Company’s Cost of Debt was calculated as the weighted average Interest paid for the last 3 years divided by the book value of weighted average interest bearing debt outstanding

Analyst Coverage

We have 1 Analysts covering GGD:TSE.

GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

Current Price: 0.67 CAD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions	2017	2018	2019
Mean EPS	0.0393	0.1049	0.1704
# EPS Analysts	1	1	1
Mean Revenue	57.7	103.6	162.6
# Revenue Analysts	1	1	1
Mean Target Price	1.1000
Mean Cash Flow	0.0918	0.2753	0.3540
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Analyst Recommendation
Buy	Hold	Sell	Rating(out of 5)	Recommendation	As Of
2	0	0	5.0000	Buy	2017-2-28

Based on the 1 Analysts we have covering GGD:TSE we see a consensus price target for 2017 of $1.10 (USD).

Forecasted Financial Statements

The resulting projections of the 1 analysts are shown here:

Income Statement Projections for
GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

dollars10183

Line Item USD	2014	2014	2014	2015	2016	Weighted Average	2017	2018	2019
Total Revenue	0	0	0	12,521,000	16,701,000	100.00	57,700,000	103,600,000	162,600,000
Cost Of Revenue	0	0	0	7,039,000	11,047,000	62.42	23,659,233	42,480,010	66,672,293
Gross Profit	0	0	0	5,482,000	5,654,000	37.58	34,040,767	61,119,990	95,927,707
Selling General And Administration	3,141,612	3,141,612	3,141,612	3,592,000	4,711,000	42.50	16,107,228	28,920,431	45,390,561
Research And Development	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0
EBITDA	-3,087,986	-3,087,986	-3,087,986	-1,441,000	-15,611,000	-76.61	17,933,538	32,199,559	50,537,146
Depreciation and Amortization	48,044	53,626	53,626	0	0	0.24	124,507	161,888	243,740
Operating Expense	3,141,612	3,141,612	3,141,612	3,592,000	4,711,000	42.50	9,947,880	44,027,943	69,101,771
Operating Income	-3,141,612	-3,141,612	-3,141,612	1,890,000	943,000	-4.92	24,092,886	17,092,048	26,825,936
EBIT	-3,141,612	-3,141,612	-3,141,612	-3,805,000	-19,369,000	-98.00	17,809,031	32,037,671	50,293,406
Interest Income	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0
Interest Expense	0	0	0	1,879,000	1,886,000	12.69	6,673,212	8,676,732	13,063,741
Pre-Tax Income	-4,906,733	-4,906,733	-4,906,733	-5,684,000	-21,255,000	-118.61	11,135,819	23,360,939	37,229,665
Tax Provision	2,300,164	2,300,164	2,300,164	398,000	-718,000	8.84	4,647,930	6,043,392	9,098,969
Net Income	-7,206,897	-7,206,897	-7,206,897	-6,082,000	-20,537,000	-127.45	6,487,889	17,317,547	28,130,696
Diluted Average Shares	138,890,460	138,890,460	138,890,460	159,591,424	165,086,243		165,086,243	165,086,243	165,086,243

Diluted EPS	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.13		0.04	0.10	0.17
# Of Analysts							1	1	1

As a measure of Cash flow for the company we start with the EBITDA above and adjust as you see in the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Discounted Cash Flow

Using a Discounted Cash flow model we generate a Value per share for GGD:TSE of $1.78 (USD)

Year	2017	2018	2019	Terminal Growth Rate(%)3
EBITDA (Cash Flow)	17933538	32199559	50537146	52053260
Normalizations & Adjustments	0	0	0	0
Normalized EBITDA	17933538	32199559	50537146	52053260
Tax Rate(%)3.3780	605794.92	1087701.11	1707144.79	1758359.13
+/- Tax Loss Carry Forward	0	0	0	0
Net Operating After Tax Cash Flow	17,327,743	31,111,858	48,830,001	50,294,901
Capital Investment Required (Estimate)	-20728363	-20728363	-20728363	-20728363
Tax Shields on Capital Investment	486439	486439	486439	486439
Incremental Working Capital Requirements	-6023842	-6023842	-6023842	-6023842
Discretionary Cash Flow	-8,938,023	4,846,091	22,564,235	24,029,135
Terminal Multiple ( 100 / (WACC – Growth Rate ))				17.27
Capitalized Terminal Value				415,082,650
Year: (For Discounted Calculations)	1	2	3	3+
WACC:	8.79	8.79	8.79	8.79
Discounted Annual Cash Flows	-8,215,926	4,094,696	17,525,308	322,388,563
Present Value of Discretionary Cash Flow				13,404,078
Discounted Terminal Value				322,388,563
Total Discounted Cash Flow				335,792,641
Present Value of Tax Shields				0
Redundant Assets				0
Enterprise Value				335,792,641
Less Interest Bearing Debt				31507000
En Block Fair MarketValue(FMV) Equity				304,285,641
Book Value of Preferred Equity				0
Value of Common Equity				304,285,641
Number of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding				171376481
Calculated Value Per Share ($/share)				$2.40 (CAD)

Comparable Companies

(Using Price Based Ratios)

We ran GGD:TSE against comparable companies in its space and generated a valution of $1.98 (CAD). The comparable companies included Erdene Resource Dev (ERD:TSE), Excellon Resources (EXN:TSE), Nautilus Minerals (NUS:TSE), Select Sands (SNS:TSX) and Western Copper & Gold (WRN:TSE)

Company GGD:TSE	End Date Value
Earnings/Share	($0.16) (CAD)
Book Value/Share	$0.68 (CAD)
Sales/Share	$0.16 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share	($0.03) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share	($0.12) (CAD)

Price Based on Comps	Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$3.12 (CAD)	0
$0.83 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0
($0.28) (CAD)	0

GGD:TSE	Ratios Used	Average Values	ERD:TSE	EXN:TSE	NUS:TSE	SNS:TSX	WRN:TSE
0.00	PE Ratio	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
1.26	PB Ratio	9.81	30.72	3.80	0.38	10.08	4.06
5.38	PS Ratio	5.21	0.00	5.21	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	PCF Ratio	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
0.00	EV to EBITDA	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Comparables chart

Other Ratios

Companies that do not have revenue yet or experience negative incomes can be valued against their peer group using other ratios such as Cash/share, Returns, Market Cap and Net PPE.

Using this approach we generate a valuation for GGD:TSE of $1.02 (CAD)

Company GGD:TSE	End Date Value
Cash/Share	$0.02 (CAD)
Book Value/Share	$0.68 (CAD)
MarketCap	147383773
1 Year Return	-0.157
NetPPE	136798897.5

Price Based on Comps	Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$1.02 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0

Ratios Used	Average Values
Cash / Share	0.00
Book Value / Share	0.00
Market Cap	0.00
1 Year Return	0.00
Net PPE	0.00

Multiples Approach

(We use the term multiples to describe valuing the company against its previous ratio values)
Using a multiples model we see GGD:TSE is and generate a valuation of $1.11 (CAD)

Ratios	Ratio Average
PE Ratio	0.00
PB Ratio	1.62
PS Ratio	0.00
PCF Ratio	0.00
EV to EBITDA	0.00

Price Based on Comparables	Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$1.11 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0
$0.00 (CAD)	0

Company GGD:TSE	End Date Value
Earnings/Share	($0.16) (CAD)
Book Value/Share	$0.68 (CAD)
Sales/Share	$0.16 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share	($0.03) (CAD)
EBITDA/Share	($0.12) (CAD)

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for GGD:TSE for the last 6 years was 1.61

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for GGD:TSE as follows and see a value of $0.51 (USD)

By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of $0.83 (USD)

Line Item	Most Recent Book Value	Estimated FMV	Realizable %
Total Assets	140651000	140651000	0
Current Assets	29662000	29662000	0
Cash and Cash Equilivents	2091000	2091000	100.00
Other Short Term Investments	0	0	0.00
Receivables	3154000	3154000	100.00
Inventory	24191000	24191000	100.00
Prepaid Assets	226000	226000	100.00
Deferred Income Taxes	0	0	0.00
Other Current Assets	0	0	0.00
Non-Current Assets	110989000	110989000	0
Gross PPE	114434000	114434000	0
Accumulated Depreciation	-13139000	-13139000	0
Net PPE	101295000	101295000	100.00
Goodwill	0	0	0.00
Other Intangible Assets	0	0	0.00
Other Non-Current Assets	9694000	9694000	100.00
Total Liabilities	52553000	52553000	0
Current Liabilities	48703000	48703000	0
Payables	13563000	13563000	100.00
Current Debt	35077000	35077000	100.00
Current Capital Lease Obligation	0	0	0.00
Other Current Liabilities	63000	63000	100.00
Non-Current Liabilities	3850000	3850000	0
Long Term Debt	0	0	0.00
Long Term Capital Lease Obligation	0	0	0.00
Other Non-Current Liabilities	3850000	3850000	100.00
Total Equity	88098000	88098000	0
Stockholder’s Equity	88098000	88098000	0
Preferred Stock	0	0	0.00
Common Stock	88098000	88098000	0
Treasury Stock	0	0	0.00
Retained Earnings	-41263000	-41263000	100.00
Other Equity	41263000	41263000	100.00
Total Liabilities and Equity	140651000	140651000	0

ANBV Equity Common Shareholders	88098000
Number Shares Outstanding	171376481
Adjusted NetBook Value per Share USD $	$0.51
Adjusted NetBook Value per Share CAD $	$0.69

Sector and Industry Analysis

GGD:TSE	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010
P:E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
P:B	–	1.31	2.07	1.40	1.84	4.81	2.10
P:S	–	10.65	–	–	–	–	–
P:CF	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
EV:EBITDA	–	–	-82.77	-37.84	-54.30	-88.67	-14.81

Basic Materials:Industrial Metals & Minerals	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
P:E	–	26.10	22.94	16.37	29.64	35.48	36.64	21.76	10.50	65.14
P:B	–	1.55	1.55	1.93	3.16	3.48	3.05	2.35	4.05	3.50
P:S	–	8.20	2.33	10.00	16.02	46.76	11.80	14.84	32.08	40.23
P:CF	–	18.94	8.39	57.79	14.40	32.92	27.49	18.15	10.77	25.33
EV:EBITDA	–	9.31	25.95	0.38	11.80	17.35	9.09	11.56	-2.09	8.91

Summary

If you would like to explore this company further you can start with a quick DCF analysis at https://www.stockcalc.com?ss=B63CF04C210D469A8898D1CA689352F0

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GoGold Resources (GGD:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Valuation Summary:

Discounted Cash Flow

Comparables Model

Multiples

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

Analyst Data

Summary

Company Overview (GGD:TSE CAD)

Detailed Company Description

Financial Data for GGD:TSE

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Ratio Data for GGD:TSE

Profitability Ratios

Efficiency Ratios

Financial Health

Valuation Ratios

Valuation Details and Assumptions

Cost of Capital

Analyst Coverage

GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

Forecasted Financial Statements

Income Statement Projections for GGD:TSE GoGold Resources

Discounted Cash Flow

Comparable Companies

(Using Price Based Ratios)

Other Ratios

Multiples Approach

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

Sector and Industry Analysis

Summary

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GGD:TSE GoGold Resources