Vulcan Materials (VMC:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Vulcan Materials (VMC:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Vulcan Materials(VMC:NYS)

Basic Materials:Building Materials

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$184.47 (USD) 05/21/2021

Weighted Valuation
$179.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.8%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $146.96 (USD)
Multiples: $170.13 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $179.33 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (VMC:NYS USD)

Price 184.47
Range 184.41 – 187.88
52 week 99.84 – 193.11
Open 185.59
Vol / Avg. 553568/680362
Mkt cap 24.47B
P/E 35.68
Div/yield 1.36/0.01
EPS 4.39
Shares 132.67M
Beta 0.59

Company Description

Vulcan Materials is the United States’ largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel). Its largest markets include Texas, California, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Alabama. In 2020, Vulcan sold 208 million tons of aggregates, 12 million tons of asphalt mix, and 3 million cubic yards of ready-mix. As of Dec. 31, 2019, the company had more than 16 billion tons of aggregates reserves.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for VMC:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $111.25 (USD) for VMC:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

VMC:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $111.25 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.12 $143.22 $89.92
Terminal Growth Rate 1.10 $91.70 $140.51
Tax Rate 0.21 $120.90 $101.60
Cash Flow 1,630,237,500 $101.92 $120.59
Capital Expenditures -385,936,800 $109.22 $113.29
Long Term Debt 1,983,770,000 $112.00 $110.50

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $124.23 (USD) for VMC:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $266.54 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Martin Marietta Materials (MLM:NYS), MDU Resources Gr (MDU:NYS), Eagle Materials (EXP:NYS) and Summit Materials (SUM:NYS).

Company VMC:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.58 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.68 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.58 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$112.76 (USD) 0.0
$149.62 (USD) -49.6
$103.28 (USD) 47.5
$74.88 (USD) 30.8
$127.49 (USD) 46.8
VMC:NYS Ratios Used Average Values MLM:NYS MDU:NYS EXP:NYS SUM:NYS
35.68 PE Ratio 21.94 29.79 16.29 18.08 23.60
3.99 PB Ratio 3.23 3.82 2.20 4.50 2.42
5.04 PS Ratio 2.82 4.76 1.22 3.72 1.59
21.25 PCF Ratio 11.81 19.93 8.67 9.73 8.92
18.79 EV to EBITDA 13.31 17.41 10.27 14.66 10.90

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $170.13 (USD) for VMC:NYS

Company VMC:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.14 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $36.58 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $8.68 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.58 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$173.45 (USD) 0
$155.09 (USD) 0
$150.80 (USD) 0
$196.79 (USD) 0
$174.53 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 33.75
PB Ratio 3.35
PS Ratio 4.12
PCF Ratio 22.67
EV to EBITDA 18.22

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  VMC:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.17

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  VMC:NYS and generated a book value of  $46.31 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $146.96 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for VMC:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for VMC:NYS for 2021 of $179.33 (USD).

VMC:NYS Vulcan Materials

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 3 0 3.2000 Hold 2021-5-20

Current Price: 184.47 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 5.03 6.17 5.99
# EPS Analysts 5 5 1
Mean Revenue 5,080.80 5,410.40 5,443.90
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Target Price 179.33
Mean Cash Flow 8.40 9.35 9.76
Mean EBITDA 1,488.90 1,591.80 1,612.50
Mean Net Income 678.70 837.60 798.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 21.00
Mean Capital Expenditure 449.80 444.20 490.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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