Telefonica Brasil (VIV:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Telefonica Brasil (VIV:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Telefonica Brasil(VIV:NYS)

Communication Services:Telecom Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
44.09 (BRL) / $8.21 (USD) 05/21/2021

Weighted Valuation
46.39 (BRL) / $8.64 (USD)

Use a conversion rate of 0.1862 from BRL to USD.

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 5.2%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: 46.40 (BRL) / $8.64 (USD)
Multiples: 46.38 (BRL) / $8.64 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $10.61 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (VIV:NYS USD)

Price 8.21
Range 8.16 – 8.34
52 week 7.26 – 10.11
Open 8.34
Vol / Avg. 790292/943203
Mkt cap 13.96B
P/E 15.71
Div/yield 3.31/0.10
EPS 2.90
Shares 1.69B
Beta 0.51

Company Description

Telefonica Brasil, known as Vivo, is the largest wireless carrier in Brazil with nearly 80 million customers, equal to about 34% market share. The firm is strongest in the postpaid business, where it has 45 million customers, about 38% share of this market. It is the incumbent fixed-line telephone operator in Sao Paulo state and, following the acquisition of GVT, the owner of an extensive fiber network across the country. The firm provides Internet access to 6 million households on this network. Following its parent Telefonica’s footsteps, Vivo is cross-selling fixed-line and wireless services as a converged offering. The firm also sells pay-tv services to its fixed-line customers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for VIV:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of 128.81 (BRL) / $23.98 (USD) for VIV:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

VIV:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $128.81 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.21 $161.09 $107.27
Terminal Growth Rate 1.20 $108.97 $158.55
Tax Rate 0.21 $139.65 $117.97
Cash Flow 18,507,139,002 $120.37 $137.25
Capital Expenditures 493,306,400 $129.02 $128.60
Long Term Debt 2,602,847,766 $128.89 $128.73

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of 60.01 (BRL) / $11.17 (USD) for VIV:NYS. We also generated a valuation of 55.55 (BRL) / $10.34 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Altice USA (ATUS:NYS), Cable One (CABO:NYS), Iridium Communications (IRDM:NAS), TIM (TIMB:NYS) and TELUS (TU:NYS).

Company VIV:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 2.78 (BRL) / $0.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share 41.98 (BRL) / $7.82 (USD)
Sales/Share 25.87 (BRL) / $4.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 11.60 (BRL) / $2.16 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 11.36 (BRL) / $2.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
74.32 (BRL) / $13.84 (USD) -50.7
147.10 (BRL) / $27.39 (USD) -59.5
115.50 (BRL) / $21.51 (USD) -27.2
82.18 (BRL) / $15.30 (USD) -26.0
135.81 (BRL) / $25.29 (USD) -78.4
VIV:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ATUS:NYS CABO:NYS IRDM:NAS TIMB:NYS TU:NYS
15.71 PE Ratio 26.78 27.74 35.16 0.00 14.70 29.51
1.05 PB Ratio 3.50 0.00 6.68 3.62 1.21 2.50
1.70 PS Ratio 4.46 2.04 7.96 8.48 1.64 2.21
3.80 PCF Ratio 10.72 6.44 17.27 19.09 2.81 7.99
10.43 EV to EBITDA 11.95 10.32 16.60 18.86 4.15 9.84

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  46.38 (BRL) / $8.64 (USD) for VIV:NYS

Company VIV:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 2.78 (BRL) / $0.52 (USD)
Book Value/Share 41.98 (BRL) / $7.82 (USD)
Sales/Share 25.87 (BRL) / $4.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 11.60 (BRL) / $2.16 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 11.36 (BRL) / $2.12 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
46.12 (BRL) / $8.59 (USD) 0
46.08 (BRL) / $8.58 (USD) 0
45.90 (BRL) / $8.55 (USD) 0
45.58 (BRL) / $8.49 (USD) 0
48.23 (BRL) / $8.98 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 16.62
PB Ratio 1.10
PS Ratio 1.77
PCF Ratio 3.93
EV to EBITDA 4.24

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  VIV:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.12

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  VIV:NYS and generated a book value of  41.48 (BRL) / $7.72 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  46.40 (BRL) / $8.64 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for VIV:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for VIV:NYS for 2021 of 57.00 (BRL) / $10.61 (USD).

VIV:NYS Telefonica Brasil

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 4.5000 Outperform 2021-5-20

Current Price: 8.21 USD

Analyst Consensus
BRL Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 3.50 4.20
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 44,137.10 45,833.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 57.00
Mean Cash Flow 10.07 10.18
Mean EBITDA 18,448.70 19,645.40
Mean Net Income 5,908.00 7,092.70
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 17.78
Mean Capital Expenditure 9,021.10 9,318.80

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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