Arch Capital Group (ACGL:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Arch Capital Group (ACGL:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Arch Capital Group(ACGL:NAS)

Financial Services:Insurance – Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$38.99 (USD) 05/26/2021

Weighted Valuation
$44.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 13.7%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $46.54 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $44.33 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (ACGL:NAS USD)

Price 38.99
Range 38.93 – 39.42
52 week 27.04 – 40.79
Open 39.14
Vol / Avg. 1.06M/1.59M
Mkt cap 15.74B
P/E 9.63
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 3.32
Shares 403.62M
Beta 0.85

Company Description

Arch Capital Group Ltd is a Bermuda company which writes insurance and reinsurance with operations in Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and South Africa. The business operates through three segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage. The insurance segment provides specialty risk solutions to clients worldwide across a variety of industries. The reinsurance segment provides reinsurance services which cover property catastrophe, property, liability, marine, aviation and space, trade credit and surety, agriculture, accident, life and health, and political risk. The mortgage business provides risk management and risk financing products to the mortgage insurance sectors through platforms in the U.S., Europe and Bermuda.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ACGL:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $94.03 (USD) for ACGL:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ACGL:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $94.03 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.14 $118.03 $77.97
Terminal Growth Rate 2.10 $79.43 $115.85
Tax Rate 0.07 $99.23 $88.83
Cash Flow 2,301,091,186 $89.17 $98.89
Capital Expenditures -29,132,400 $93.97 $94.08
Long Term Debt 0 $94.03 $94.03

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $22.20 (USD) for ACGL:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $29.69 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Enstar Gr (ESGR:NAS) and Athene Holding (ATH:NYS).

Company ACGL:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.05 (USD)
Book Value/Share $30.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $21.77 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$11.92 (USD) -28.1
$23.94 (USD) 34.1
$26.54 (USD) 26.6
$8.65 (USD) -9.3
$0.00 (USD) -19.4
ACGL:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ESGR:NAS ATH:NYS
9.63 PE Ratio 2.94 2.23 3.66
1.28 PB Ratio 0.78 0.88 0.69
1.79 PS Ratio 1.22 1.76 0.68
5.25 PCF Ratio 2.16 1.54 2.77
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $59.26 (USD) for ACGL:NAS

Company ACGL:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.05 (USD)
Book Value/Share $30.52 (USD)
Sales/Share $21.77 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.43 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.38 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$63.84 (USD) 0
$45.40 (USD) 0
$50.82 (USD) 0
$65.94 (USD) 0
$70.29 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.76
PB Ratio 1.49
PS Ratio 2.33
PCF Ratio 8.88
EV to EBITDA 16.06

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ACGL:NAS for the last 10 years was  1.45

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ACGL:NAS and generated a book value of  $32.20 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $46.54 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ACGL:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ACGL:NAS for 2021 of $44.33 (USD).

ACGL:NAS Arch Capital Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 1 0 4.3333 Outperform 2021-5-25

Current Price: 38.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.77 3.67 4.11
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 9,167.40 9,835.70 11,201.10
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Target Price 44.33
Mean Cash Flow 2.64 3.45 3.85
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 1,176.30 1,490.30 1,647.40
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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