FLIR Systems (FLIR:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

FLIR Systems (FLIR:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

FLIR Systems(FLIR:NAS)

Technology:Scientific & Technical Instruments

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$60.37 (USD) 04/28/2021

Weighted Valuation
$59.22 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.9%

Valuation Models Comparables: $66.33 (USD)
Multiples: $48.56 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $54.00 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (FLIR:NAS USD)

Price 60.37
Range 59.65 – 60.48
52 week 33.55 – 60.37
Open 59.83
Vol / Avg. 1.27M/1.28M
Mkt cap 7.93B
P/E 37.73
Div/yield 0.68/0.01
EPS 1.60
Shares 131.37M
Beta 1.58

Company Description

FLIR Systems Inc designs, develops, markets, and distributes technologies that detect people, objects, and substances. The company’s two business units are Industrial Technologies and Defense Technologies segment. The Industrial Technologies segment develops components used to create thermal, industrial, and other imaging systems. The Defense Technologies unit develops imaging and recognition solutions for military, law enforcement, and other government customers. The company operates around the world, with a significant portion of revenue coming from the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for FLIR:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $35.31 (USD) for FLIR:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

FLIR:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $35.31 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.96 $43.20 $29.69
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $30.30 $42.35
Tax Rate 0.25 $38.01 $32.62
Cash Flow 485,521,400 $33.18 $37.45
Capital Expenditures -42,153,400 $35.14 $35.48
Long Term Debt 516,606,000 $35.51 $35.12

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $66.33 (USD) for FLIR:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $85.93 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Fortive (FTV:NYS), Keysight Technologies (KEYS:NYS), Trimble (TRMB:NAS), Teledyne Technologies (TDY:NYS) and Itron (ITRI:NAS).

Company FLIR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.61 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.34 (USD)
Sales/Share $14.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.36 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.07 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$63.63 (USD) -30.6
$76.46 (USD) 4.5
$75.75 (USD) 18.1
$58.74 (USD) -47.3
$96.26 (USD) -7.1
FLIR:NAS Ratios Used Average Values FTV:NYS KEYS:NYS TRMB:NAS TDY:NYS ITRI:NAS
37.73 PE Ratio 39.52 18.33 43.50 53.85 42.40 0.00
4.21 PB Ratio 5.33 2.80 7.71 5.83 5.17 5.15
4.16 PS Ratio 5.22 5.75 6.41 6.69 5.53 1.73
25.63 PCF Ratio 27.30 18.55 24.78 31.33 27.57 34.26
20.57 EV to EBITDA 31.36 13.04 23.50 33.42 27.93 58.91

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $48.56 (USD) for FLIR:NAS

Company FLIR:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.60 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.34 (USD)
Sales/Share $14.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.36 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.07 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$48.69 (USD) 0
$48.16 (USD) 0
$50.46 (USD) 0
$43.29 (USD) 0
$52.19 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 30.43
PB Ratio 3.36
PS Ratio 3.48
PCF Ratio 18.38
EV to EBITDA 17.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  FLIR:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.02

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  FLIR:NAS and generated a book value of  $14.36 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $43.38 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for FLIR:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for FLIR:NAS for 2021 of $54.00 (USD).

FLIR:NAS FLIR Systems

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2021-4-27

Current Price: 60.37 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 2.50 2.75
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 1,955.00 2,057.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 54.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.46 3.04
Mean EBITDA 465.00 518.00
Mean Net Income 265.00 306.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 347.00 201.00
Mean Tax Rate 22.00 22.00
Mean Growth Rate 7.30
Mean Capital Expenditure 55.00 60.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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