EPR Props (EPR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

EPR Props (EPR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

EPR Props(EPR:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT – Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$47.68 (USD) 04/23/2021

Weighted Valuation
$43.94 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 7.8%

Valuation Models Multiples: $40.90 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $41.00 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (EPR:NYS USD)

Price 47.68
Range 47.08 – 47.91
52 week 21.55 – 50.49
Open 47.45
Vol / Avg. 437876/514585
Mkt cap 3.56B
P/E 216.36
Div/yield 1.52/0.02
EPS -2.05
Shares 74.77M
Beta 1.87

Company Description

EPR Properties is a real estate investment trust that leases experiential properties in the United States and Canada. The company invests in two property segments: experiential, including theaters, family entertainment centers, ski resorts, and other attractions; and education, including early childhood education centers and private school properties. New investments are determined based on value and opportunity of the respective industry, location quality, and credit quality of tenants. The majority of revenue comes from the experiential sector. Texas, Florida, New York, and California are key revenue-driving states.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for EPR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $13.55 (USD) for EPR:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

EPR:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $13.55 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.12 $19.85 $8.64
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $9.30 $19.00
Tax Rate 0.27 $16.86 $10.25
Cash Flow 467,184,515 $11.03 $16.07
Capital Expenditures -29,883,600 $13.40 $13.70
Long Term Debt 2,248,576,000 $15.06 $12.05

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.51 (USD) for EPR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $78.39 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Seritage Growth Props (SRG:NYS), Brixmor Property Group (BRX:NYS), Retail Props of America (RPAI:NYS), Retail Opportunity (ROIC:NAS) and Urstadt Biddle Properties (UBP:NYS).

Company EPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.05) (USD)
Book Value/Share $35.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.86 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.75 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -55.5
$63.77 (USD) -57.9
$33.13 (USD) 4.9
($38.69) (USD) -24.4
$77.93 (USD) 0.9
EPR:NYS Ratios Used Average Values SRG:NYS BRX:NYS RPAI:NYS ROIC:NAS UBP:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 90.75 0.00 52.93 165.71 65.11 79.26
1.36 PB Ratio 1.81 1.57 2.40 1.58 1.74 1.77
8.74 PS Ratio 6.07 6.00 6.14 5.75 7.84 4.63
55.51 PCF Ratio 14.66 0.00 14.59 13.51 20.87 9.66
30.76 EV to EBITDA 28.30 72.15 17.09 16.52 17.97 17.78

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $40.90 (USD) for EPR:NYS

Company EPR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.05) (USD)
Book Value/Share $35.18 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.86 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.75 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$63.85 (USD) 0
$46.28 (USD) 0
$10.76 (USD) 0
$42.70 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.16
PB Ratio 1.81
PS Ratio 8.48
PCF Ratio 12.52
EV to EBITDA 15.51

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  EPR:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.77

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  EPR:NYS and generated a book value of  $35.26 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $62.35 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for EPR:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for EPR:NYS for 2021 of $41.00 (USD).

EPR:NYS EPR Props

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 0 3.0000 Hold 2021-4-22

Current Price: 47.68 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS -0.25 1.44
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 363.20 484.90
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 41.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.96 3.51
Mean EBITDA 319.40 434.10
Mean Net Income -17.50 104.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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