Curtiss-Wright (CW:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Curtiss-Wright (CW:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Curtiss-Wright(CW:NYS)

Industrials:Specialty Industrial Machinery

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$125.10 (USD) 04/22/2021

Weighted Valuation
$117.61 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 6.0%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $126.73 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $113.39 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $112.72 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $150.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (CW:NYS USD)

Price 125.10
Range 124.74 – 126.84
52 week 82.98 – 126.28
Open 126.08
Vol / Avg. 161586/209036
Mkt cap 5.12B
P/E 26.06
Div/yield 0.68/0.01
EPS 4.80
Shares 40.92M
Beta 1.62

Company Description

Curtiss-Wright Corporation delivers engineered products and services to commercial, defense, power generation, and other industrial markets. It offers industrial vehicle components, control systems and weapons handling systems, pumps, valves, and other solutions. The diversified global company attempts to deliver products on high-performance platforms that require technical sophistication. It has three operating segments based on the markets serviced: Commercial/Industrial (generates maximum revenue), Defense, and Power. Approximately one-third of total sales are derived from contracts with agencies of, and prime contractors to, the United States government. In addition, the company generates a healthy amount of revenue from non-United States operations.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CW:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $112.72 (USD) for CW:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CW:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $112.72 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.78 $136.47 $95.08
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $97.15 $133.67
Tax Rate 0.23 $122.02 $103.43
Cash Flow 596,576,000 $105.20 $120.24
Capital Expenditures -46,513,200 $112.19 $113.26
Long Term Debt 966,842,000 $113.90 $111.54

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $179.38 (USD) for CW:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $166.48 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were TPI Composites (TPIC:NAS), CSW Industrials (CSWI:NAS), John Bean Technologies (JBT:NYS), Hillenbrand (HI:NYS) and Colfax (CFX:NYS).

Company CW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.80 (USD)
Book Value/Share $43.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $56.94 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.22 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.87 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$470.98 (USD) -31.0
$241.34 (USD) -48.0
$143.94 (USD) -15.4
$136.90 (USD) -26.1
$267.63 (USD) -15.3
CW:NYS Ratios Used Average Values TPIC:NAS CSWI:NAS JBT:NYS HI:NYS CFX:NYS
26.06 PE Ratio 98.12 0.00 48.07 40.27 203.21 100.93
2.86 PB Ratio 5.52 10.55 5.49 6.80 3.09 1.70
2.20 PS Ratio 2.53 1.20 5.51 2.54 1.39 2.01
20.12 PCF Ratio 26.68 53.44 33.05 17.39 9.09 20.43
14.81 EV to EBITDA 27.12 45.58 33.57 20.80 15.27 20.37

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $113.39 (USD) for CW:NYS

Company CW:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.80 (USD)
Book Value/Share $43.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $56.94 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.22 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $9.87 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$101.07 (USD) 0
$137.34 (USD) 0
$117.96 (USD) 0
$92.56 (USD) 0
$118.03 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 21.06
PB Ratio 3.14
PS Ratio 2.07
PCF Ratio 14.88
EV to EBITDA 11.96

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CW:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.90

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CW:NYS and generated a book value of  $43.69 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $126.73 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for CW:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for CW:NYS for 2021 of $150.00 (USD).

CW:NYS Curtiss-Wright

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-4-21

Current Price: 125.1 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 4.45 4.86 8.63
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 2,485.00 2,584.40 2,687.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 150.00
Mean Cash Flow 10.21 10.89 11.69
Mean EBITDA 534.30 557.10 579.20
Mean Net Income 298.10 321.70 340.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 580.90 422.80 234.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 55.00 60.00 65.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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