Brookdale Senior Living (BKD:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Brookdale Senior Living(BKD:NYS)

Healthcare:Medical Care Facilities

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$6.79 (USD) 04/16/2021

Weighted Valuation
$9.28 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 36.7%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $5.98 (USD)
Comparables: $14.86 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $7.00 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (BKD:NYS USD)

Price 6.79
Range 6.72 – 6.94
52 week 2.43 – 7.04
Open 6.83
Vol / Avg. 931157/1.61M
Mkt cap 1.25B
P/E 15.43
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.44
Shares 183.46M
Beta 1.84

Company Description

Brookdale operates senior living communities throughout the United States. Private pay customers contribute the majority of its resident fees. Brookdale’s retirement centers are targeted toward middle- to upper-income seniors, typically over the age of 75. They provide basic services, like meals and housekeeping, and supplemental-care services to assist residents with daily activities. Brookdale’s assisted living communities offer 24-hour assistance with daily activities and include memory-care communities that are specifically designed for residents with Alzheimer’s disease or other dementia. Its continuing-care retirement centers are large communities that accommodate all levels of physical ability and health. The majority of the firm’s revenue comes from assisted living resident fees.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BKD:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($2.08) (USD) for BKD:NYS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $14.86 (USD) for BKD:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $15.80 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Joint (JYNT:NAS), Acadia Healthcare Co (ACHC:NAS), Surgery Partners (SGRY:NAS), Addus HomeCare (ADUS:NAS) and Apollo Medical Hlgs (AMEH:NAS).

Company BKD:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $18.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.12 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.59 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$19.41 (USD) 0.0
$16.01 (USD) -44.3
$0.00 (USD) -35.9
($14.24) (USD) -43.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
BKD:NYS Ratios Used Average Values JYNT:NAS ACHC:NAS SGRY:NAS ADUS:NAS AMEH:NAS
15.43 PE Ratio 44.12 58.30 39.32 0.00 52.09 26.77
1.56 PB Ratio 10.09 35.75 2.92 4.84 3.31 3.61
0.37 PS Ratio 4.12 13.04 2.63 1.16 2.26 1.48
6.09 PCF Ratio 24.65 68.42 8.35 8.73 15.80 21.94
9.27 EV to EBITDA 33.43 90.50 19.29 19.94 31.64 5.79

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $14.94 (USD) for BKD:NYS

Company BKD:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $18.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.12 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.59 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$3.74 (USD) 0
$5.41 (USD) 0
$6.45 (USD) 0
$6.83 (USD) 0
$52.27 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 8.49
PB Ratio 1.24
PS Ratio 0.35
PCF Ratio 6.12
EV to EBITDA 14.56

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BKD:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.40

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BKD:NYS and generated a book value of  $4.26 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $5.98 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for BKD:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for BKD:NYS for 2021 of $7.00 (USD).

BKD:NYS Brookdale Senior Living

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2021-4-15

Current Price: 6.79 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS -1.88 -1.14
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 3,093.90 3,182.90
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 7.00
Mean Cash Flow -1.53 -0.43
Mean EBITDA 337.70 500.80
Mean Net Income -344.30 -209.20
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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