Avalara (AVLR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Avalara (AVLR:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Avalara(AVLR:NYS)

Technology:Software – Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$148.33 (USD) 04/16/2021

Weighted Valuation
$157.23 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 6.0%

Valuation Models Comparables: $190.74 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $205.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (AVLR:NYS USD)

Price 148.33
Range 146.78 – 152.00
52 week 81.48 – 183.79
Open 152.00
Vol / Avg. 418053/884727
Mkt cap 12.67B
P/E 74.47
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.61
Shares 85.43M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Avalara Inc provides compliance solutions. It provides software solutions that help businesses of all types and sizes comply with tax requirements for transactions worldwide. The company offers a broad and growing suite of compliance solutions for transaction taxes, such as sales and use tax, VAT, fuel excise tax, beverage alcohol, cross-border taxes, lodging tax, and communications tax. These solutions enable customers to automate the process of determining taxability, identifying applicable tax rates, determining and collecting taxes, preparing and filing returns, remitting taxes, maintaining tax records, and managing compliance documents. It generates revenue in the form of subscriptions and professional services.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AVLR:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $9.18 (USD) for AVLR:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AVLR:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $9.18 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.59 $11.54 $7.60
Terminal Growth Rate 0.60 $7.78 $11.27
Tax Rate 0.15 $9.41 $8.94
Cash Flow 29,609,361 $8.90 $9.46
Capital Expenditures -10,155,800 $9.09 $9.27
Long Term Debt 0 $9.18 $9.18

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $135.61 (USD) for AVLR:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $190.74 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CDK Global (CDK:NAS), Paylocity Holding (PCTY:NAS), RealPage (RP:NAS), SS&C Technologies Hldgs (SSNC:NAS) and Digital Turbine (APPS:NAS).

Company AVLR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.61) (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.18 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.46) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$299.63 (USD) 0.0
$75.87 (USD) 0.0
$30.50 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
AVLR:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CDK:NAS PCTY:NAS RP:NAS SSNC:NAS APPS:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 118.21 23.88 163.15 192.54 31.03 180.47
11.73 PB Ratio 23.70 0.00 25.86 5.60 3.26 60.07
24.00 PS Ratio 12.27 3.42 18.61 7.75 4.16 27.42
281.86 PCF Ratio 59.55 18.00 113.01 32.47 16.41 117.88
0.00 EV to EBITDA 59.25 14.56 100.42 38.11 14.39 128.74

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $195.34 (USD) for AVLR:NYS

Company AVLR:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.61) (USD)
Book Value/Share $12.64 (USD)
Sales/Share $6.18 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.46) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$206.63 (USD) 0
$103.33 (USD) 0
$276.04 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 78.80
PB Ratio 16.34
PS Ratio 16.72
PCF Ratio 524.59
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AVLR:NYS for the last 3 years was  16.34

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AVLR:NYS and generated a book value of  $12.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $207.53 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AVLR:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AVLR:NYS for 2021 of $205.00 (USD).

AVLR:NYS Avalara

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-4-15

Current Price: 148.33 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS -0.20 0.07
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 632.00 786.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 205.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.27 0.51
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -19.20 6.50
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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