Aecon Group (ARE:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Aecon Group (ARE:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Aecon Group(ARE:TSE)

Industrials:Engineering & Construction

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$19.72 (CAD) 04/15/2021

Weighted Valuation
$21.64 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 9.7%

Valuation Models Comparables: $24.18 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $18.47 (CAD)
Multiples: $20.34 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $21.88 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (ARE:TSE CAD)

Price 19.72
Range 19.57 – 19.78
52 week 13.42 – 20.06
Open 19.62
Vol / Avg. 136961/205390
Mkt cap 1.18B
P/E 15.29
Div/yield 0.64/0.03
EPS 1.29
Shares 60.22M
Beta 0.92

Company Description

Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two major segments: Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment includes various aspects of the construction of public and private infrastructure projects, mainly in the transportation sector. Its concessions segment is primarily engaged in the development, financing, construction, and operation of infrastructure projects. Aecon generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ARE:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $75.76 (CAD) for ARE:TSE

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ARE:TSE Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $75.76 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.85 $96.33 $62.09
Terminal Growth Rate 0.90 $63.47 $94.26
Tax Rate 0.29 $80.20 $71.32
Cash Flow 267,206,354 $72.65 $78.86
Capital Expenditures 5,747,200 $75.82 $75.69
Long Term Debt 347,663,000 $76.04 $75.47

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.18 (CAD) for ARE:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $34.88 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Dirtt Environmental Solns (DRT:TSE), Bird Construction (BDT:TSE), Badger Daylighting (BAD:TSE), IBI Group (IBG:TSE) and SNC-Lavalin Gr (SNC:TSE).

Company ARE:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.29 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $14.52 (CAD)
Sales/Share $48.02 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.60 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $3.20 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$39.33 (CAD) -23.1
$49.35 (CAD) -41.0
$55.68 (CAD) -50.5
$48.64 (CAD) -65.1
$28.30 (CAD) -26.7
ARE:TSE Ratios Used Average Values DRT:TSE BDT:TSE BAD:TSE IBG:TSE SNC:TSE
15.29 PE Ratio 30.49 0.00 11.25 57.42 22.79 0.00
1.36 PB Ratio 3.40 2.20 2.25 4.33 6.35 1.88
0.41 PS Ratio 1.16 1.49 0.27 2.55 0.80 0.68
5.48 PCF Ratio 16.19 20.53 3.16 10.21 7.55 39.48
5.18 EV to EBITDA 28.98 89.38 5.28 13.57 7.70 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $20.34 (CAD) for ARE:TSE

Company ARE:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.29 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $14.52 (CAD)
Sales/Share $48.02 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.60 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $3.20 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$23.93 (CAD) 0
$19.11 (CAD) 0
$19.08 (CAD) 0
$19.67 (CAD) 0
$19.89 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.55
PB Ratio 1.32
PS Ratio 0.40
PCF Ratio 5.47
EV to EBITDA 6.22

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ARE:TSE for the last 10 years was  1.27

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ARE:TSE and generated a book value of  $14.52 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $18.47 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 13 analysts that provide a valuation for ARE:TSE. The 13 analysts have a concensus valuation for ARE:TSE for 2021 of $21.88 (CAD).

ARE:TSE Aecon Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
7 2 0 4.3846 Outperform 2021-4-15

Current Price: 19.72 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 1.08 1.31 1.30
# EPS Analysts 13 13 2
Mean Revenue 3,899.00 4,070.80 3,977.50
# Revenue Analysts 13 13 2
Mean Target Price 21.88
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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