American Financial Group (AFG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

American Financial Group (AFG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Financial Group(AFG:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance – Property & Casualty

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$119.07 (USD) 04/14/2021

Weighted Valuation
$119.73 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.6%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $112.47 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $124.46 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $123.00 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (AFG:NYS USD)

Price 119.07
Range 118.16 – 119.72
52 week 54.44 – 119.39
Open 118.21
Vol / Avg. 230285/504155
Mkt cap 10.15B
P/E 14.52
Div/yield 3.85/0.02
EPS 8.20
Shares 85.21M
Beta 0.94

Company Description

American Financial Group Inc is a holding company that is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance services. The company has a focus on specialized commercial products for businesses. American also has annuity operations that are focused on sales of traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the education, bank, and individual markets. American’s insurance operations are conducted through the Great American Insurance Group. The group writes business in all 50 of the United States, primarily through independent agents and brokers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AFG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $124.46 (USD) for AFG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AFG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $124.46 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.88 $145.72 $108.60
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $110.51 $143.16
Tax Rate 0.15 $131.81 $117.11
Cash Flow 952,883,179 $118.17 $130.75
Capital Expenditures -9,600,000 $124.41 $124.52
Long Term Debt 0 $124.46 $124.46

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $165.13 (USD) for AFG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $134.85 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Selective Insurance Gr (SIGI:NAS), Kinsale Capital Gr (KNSL:NAS), Cincinnati Financial (CINF:NAS), Root (ROOT:NAS) and NMI Holdings (NMIH:NAS).

Company AFG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.20 (USD)
Book Value/Share $79.68 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $24.47 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.49 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$178.48 (USD) -43.5
$226.16 (USD) -17.5
$324.16 (USD) -19.9
$227.28 (USD) -54.5
$0.00 (USD) -64.1
AFG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values SIGI:NAS KNSL:NAS CINF:NAS ROOT:NAS NMIH:NAS
14.52 PE Ratio 21.77 18.61 43.62 14.15 0.00 10.68
1.49 PB Ratio 2.84 1.80 6.68 1.58 2.71 1.42
1.36 PS Ratio 3.70 1.57 8.10 2.28 2.42 4.13
4.87 PCF Ratio 10.19 8.28 13.78 11.55 0.00 7.14
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $115.88 (USD) for AFG:NYS

Company AFG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $8.20 (USD)
Book Value/Share $79.68 (USD)
Sales/Share $87.57 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $24.47 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.49 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$131.26 (USD) 0
$124.01 (USD) 0
$106.07 (USD) 0
$124.64 (USD) 0
$93.43 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 16.01
PB Ratio 1.56
PS Ratio 1.21
PCF Ratio 5.09
EV to EBITDA 8.90

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AFG:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.43

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AFG:NYS and generated a book value of  $78.63 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $112.47 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AFG:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AFG:NYS for 2021 of $123.00 (USD).

AFG:NYS American Financial Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-4-13

Current Price: 119.07 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 7.20 8.41 9.11
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 7,316.30 7,789.80 8,201.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 123.00
Mean Cash Flow 9.06 10.59 11.46
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 601.30 618.50 625.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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