Skechers USA (SKX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Skechers USA (SKX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Skechers USA(SKX:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Footwear & Accessories

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$42.57 (USD) 04/08/2021

Weighted Valuation
$44.36 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 4.2%

Valuation Models Comparables: $45.53 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $42.61 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $52.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (SKX:NYS USD)

Price 42.57
Range 42.17 – 43.43
52 week 24.33 – 43.42
Open 43.34
Vol / Avg. 1.22M/1.77M
Mkt cap 6.72B
P/E 67.84
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.64
Shares 157.75M
Beta 1.39

Company Description

Skechers USA Inc is a lifestyle footwear company under the Skechers GO brand name. Products offered include various styles of women’s shoes, men’s shoes, girl’s shoes, boy’s shoes, performance shoes, and work shoes. Allied products offered are apparel, bags, eyewear, toys, and more. Its products are available for sale at department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, boutiques, and internet retailers. The company’s operating segments include Domestic Wholesale, International Wholesale, and Direct-to-Consumer. It generates maximum revenue from the International Wholesale segment.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SKX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $74.62 (USD) for SKX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SKX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $74.62 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.35 $89.03 $64.13
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $65.24 $87.51
Tax Rate 0.06 $79.03 $70.21
Cash Flow 990,139,000 $70.45 $78.79
Capital Expenditures 1,109,400 $74.62 $74.62
Long Term Debt 74,501,000 $74.64 $74.60

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $45.53 (USD) for SKX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $97.06 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Crocs (CROX:NAS), Steven Madden (SHOO:NAS), Foot Locker (FL:NYS), Deckers Outdoor (DECK:NYS) and Wolverine World Wide (WWW:NYS).

Company SKX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.64 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $29.68 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.03 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$13.32 (USD) 21.6
$114.91 (USD) -35.8
$78.13 (USD) -25.9
$39.40 (USD) -60.8
$48.81 (USD) 65.2
SKX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CROX:NAS SHOO:NAS FL:NYS DECK:NYS WWW:NYS
67.84 PE Ratio 20.81 17.92 0.00 18.22 26.30 0.00
2.76 PB Ratio 7.31 18.40 4.12 2.09 6.29 5.62
1.46 PS Ratio 2.63 4.04 2.53 0.78 4.08 1.73
20.29 PCF Ratio 24.46 20.99 68.86 5.55 16.88 10.01
23.52 EV to EBITDA 24.09 23.15 45.54 10.69 16.97 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $26.17 (USD) for SKX:NYS

Company SKX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.64 (USD)
Book Value/Share $15.73 (USD)
Sales/Share $29.68 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.14 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.03 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$12.17 (USD) 0
$38.31 (USD) 0
$32.65 (USD) 0
$28.81 (USD) 0
$18.92 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.01
PB Ratio 2.44
PS Ratio 1.10
PCF Ratio 13.46
EV to EBITDA 9.34

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SKX:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.66

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SKX:NYS and generated a book value of  $16.05 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $42.61 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for SKX:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for SKX:NYS for 2021 of $52.00 (USD).

SKX:NYS Skechers USA

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-4-7

Current Price: 42.57 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.15 2.70 3.25
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 5,785.70 6,200.20 6,771.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 52.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.94 3.99 4.65
Mean EBITDA 611.70 835.90 961.30
Mean Net Income 310.60 431.40 490.90
Mean Debt Outstanding -514.00 -638.20 -713.70
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 318.20 279.00 304.70

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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