Banco Santander (SAN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Banco Santander (SAN:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Banco Santander(SAN:NYS)

Financial Services:Banks – Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
2.92 (EUR) / $3.48 (USD) 04/06/2021

Weighted Valuation
2.95 (EUR) / $3.51 (USD)

Use a conversion rate of 1.19 from EUR to USD.

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.9%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: 2.99 (EUR) / $3.56 (USD)
Multiples: 2.73 (EUR) / $3.25 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $3.57 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (SAN:NYS USD)

Price 3.48
Range 3.45 – 3.49
52 week 1.72 – 3.68
Open 3.46
Vol / Avg. 3.57M/4.85M
Mkt cap 59.83B
P/E 7.46
Div/yield 0.00/0.03
EPS -0.54
Shares 17.31B
Beta 1.32

Company Description

Santander’s focus is on retail and commercial banking. Latin America is geographically the largest operation, with Brazil by far the largest. Its continental European business is still mainly Iberian. Santander’s U.K. presence is the result of the acquisition of building society Abbey. In the U.S., Santander operates a vehicle finance business and a Boston-based savings and loan association.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SAN:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of 0.85 (EUR) / $1.01 (USD) for SAN:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SAN:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $0.85 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 12.40 $0.98 $0.75
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $0.76 $0.96
Tax Rate 0.25 $0.99 $0.71
Cash Flow 8,722,059,971 $0.67 $1.04
Capital Expenditures -5,861,200,000 $0.74 $0.96
Long Term Debt 0 $0.85 $0.85

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of 2.68 (EUR) / $3.18 (USD) for SAN:NYS. We also generated a valuation of 4.91 (EUR) / $5.84 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Citigroup (C:NYS), Wells Fargo (WFC:NYS), Westpac Banking (WBK:NYS), Bank of Montreal (BMO:NYS) and Canadian Imperial Bank (CM:NYS).

Company SAN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share -0.54 (EUR) / ($0.64) (USD)
Book Value/Share 4.65 (EUR) / $5.54 (USD)
Sales/Share 2.03 (EUR) / $2.41 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 3.78 (EUR) / $4.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 0.84 (EUR) / $1.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
0.00 (EUR) / $0.00 (USD) -58.2
5.59 (EUR) / $6.66 (USD) -42.7
5.92 (EUR) / $7.04 (USD) -44.9
-6.94 (EUR) / ($8.26) (USD) -66.1
0.00 (EUR) / $0.00 (USD) 0.0
SAN:NYS Ratios Used Average Values C:NYS WFC:NYS WBK:NYS BMO:NYS CM:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 35.71 15.35 97.20 38.64 13.76 13.58
0.63 PB Ratio 1.20 0.84 1.01 1.31 1.40 1.46
1.44 PS Ratio 2.92 2.02 2.28 4.45 2.88 2.95
0.77 PCF Ratio 21.00 0.00 80.33 1.51 1.22 0.95
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  2.73 (EUR) / $3.25 (USD) for SAN:NYS

Company SAN:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share -0.54 (EUR) / ($0.64) (USD)
Book Value/Share 4.65 (EUR) / $5.54 (USD)
Sales/Share 2.03 (EUR) / $2.41 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 3.78 (EUR) / $4.50 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 0.84 (EUR) / $1.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
0.00 (EUR) / $0.00 (USD) 0
2.74 (EUR) / $3.27 (USD) 0
2.47 (EUR) / $2.94 (USD) 0
2.97 (EUR) / $3.54 (USD) 0
0.00 (EUR) / $0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 11.43
PB Ratio 0.59
PS Ratio 1.22
PCF Ratio 0.79
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SAN:NYS for the last 10 years was  0.64

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SAN:NYS and generated a book value of  4.71 (EUR) / $5.60 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  2.99 (EUR) / $3.56 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for SAN:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for SAN:NYS for 2021 of 3.00 (EUR) / $3.57 (USD).

SAN:NYS Banco Santander

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 1 0 4.2500 Outperform 2021-4-5

Current Price: 3.48 USD

Analyst Consensus
EUR Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.30 0.36 0.43
# EPS Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Revenue 44,251.70 44,404.40 46,299.20
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Target Price 3.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.76 0.95
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 5,203.80 6,512.00 7,789.50
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 38.00 37.00 37.00
Mean Growth Rate 3.50
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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