RLJ Lodging (RLJ:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

RLJ Lodging (RLJ:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

RLJ Lodging(RLJ:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT – Hotel & Motel

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$15.70 (USD) 04/01/2021

Weighted Valuation
$18.76 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 19.5%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $18.76 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $19.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (RLJ:NYS USD)

Price 15.70
Range 15.42 – 15.83
52 week 7.33 – 17.39
Open 15.63
Vol / Avg. 850642/1.34M
Mkt cap 2.59B
P/E 36.08
Div/yield 0.04/0.00
EPS -2.61
Shares 164.97M
Beta 2.20

Company Description

RLJ Lodging Trust is a real estate investment trust that acquires focused-service and compact full-service hotels. Its portfolio consists of hotels in various states across the United States and the District of Columbia. The company’s hotels are under the Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt brand names. These hotels are concentrated in urban areas, dense suburban markets, and business districts within metropolitan areas where utmost of their customers are business, leisure, and other travelers. Its revenue streams include hotel operations revenue, which is composed of the sale of rooms, food, and beverages, and other property revenue. The company derives the substantial majority of its revenue from the operation of hotels.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for RLJ:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $8.55 (USD) for RLJ:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

RLJ:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $8.55 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.57 $11.98 $6.03
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $6.31 $11.61
Tax Rate 0.27 $9.88 $7.22
Cash Flow 331,064,102 $7.58 $9.52
Capital Expenditures -156,200 $8.55 $8.55
Long Term Debt 1,582,997,000 $9.03 $8.07

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $15.78 (USD) for RLJ:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $20.83 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Service Properties Trust (SVC:NAS), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST:NAS), Sunstone Hotel Invts (SHO:NYS), Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR:NYS) and Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH:NYS).

Company RLJ:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.61) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($1.03) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.40) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -56.9
$19.83 (USD) -28.3
$18.72 (USD) -7.4
($16.48) (USD) -5.6
$0.00 (USD) -6.3
RLJ:NYS Ratios Used Average Values SVC:NAS HST:NAS SHO:NYS XHR:NYS DRH:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.13 PB Ratio 1.42 0.95 1.93 1.48 1.44 1.31
5.48 PS Ratio 6.51 1.58 7.54 10.26 6.05 7.11
0.00 PCF Ratio 53.08 53.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 70.54 15.61 0.00 0.00 125.46 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $10.84 (USD) for RLJ:NYS

Company RLJ:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.61) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.88 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($1.03) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($0.40) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$15.60 (USD) 0
$6.08 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.54
PB Ratio 1.12
PS Ratio 2.11
PCF Ratio 8.44
EV to EBITDA 11.25

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  RLJ:NYS for the last 10 years was  1.16

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  RLJ:NYS and generated a book value of  $16.16 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $18.76 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for RLJ:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for RLJ:NYS for 2021 of $19.00 (USD).

RLJ:NYS RLJ Lodging

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-4-1

Current Price: 15.7 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS -1.44 -0.29
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 763.00 1,213.10
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 19.00
Mean Cash Flow 0.04 1.31
Mean EBITDA 90.50 274.40
Mean Net Income -237.50 -48.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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