Overstock.com (OSTK:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Overstock.com (OSTK:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Overstock.com(OSTK:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Internet Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$65.12 (USD) 03/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
$59.77 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 8.2%

Valuation Models Comparables: $59.77 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $90.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (OSTK:NAS USD)

Price 65.12
Range 62.59 – 65.55
52 week 4.53 – 122.32
Open 62.91
Vol / Avg. 936537/1.88M
Mkt cap 2.8B
P/E 52.52
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.24
Shares 43M
Beta 4.36

Company Description

Overstock.com Inc is an online retailer that provides products and services through websites. The company offers a broad range of products, including furniture and home decor, jewelry, watches, apparel and accessories, BMMG (like books, magazines, CDs), electronics, and other items. The home and garden product line account for a material part of its total revenue. The company operates through a direct business that makes sales from the company’s own inventory, and a partner business that sells merchandise from manufacturers, distributors and other suppliers through the company’s websites. The company generates the majority of its total revenue from partner business in terms of business format, and from the U.S. in terms of market.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for OSTK:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $14.94 (USD) for OSTK:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

OSTK:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $14.94 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 17.57 $16.17 $13.87
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $14.09 $15.90
Tax Rate 0.02 $15.85 $14.07
Cash Flow 139,938,890 $13.96 $15.91
Capital Expenditures -33,090,600 $14.78 $15.10
Long Term Debt 49,817,000 $14.99 $14.88

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $42.67 (USD) for OSTK:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $59.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Qurate Retail (QRTEB:NAS), CarParts.com (PRTS:NAS), Liquidity Services (LQDT:NAS), ThredUp (TDUP:NAS) and Poshmark (POSH:NAS).

Company OSTK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.24 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $61.28 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.92 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$64.85 (USD) -36.1
$41.95 (USD) 4.6
$208.19 (USD) -90.0
$76.96 (USD) -79.2
$111.02 (USD) -16.9
OSTK:NAS Ratios Used Average Values QRTEB:NAS PRTS:NAS LQDT:NAS TDUP:NAS POSH:NAS
52.52 PE Ratio 268.15 4.24 0.00 100.35 0.00 699.85
7.49 PB Ratio 23.13 1.38 7.92 5.18 78.05 0.00
1.06 PS Ratio 4.89 0.36 1.31 2.73 9.19 10.87
13.79 PCF Ratio 16.65 2.08 0.00 14.09 0.00 33.77
29.40 EV to EBITDA 57.78 5.48 79.48 43.20 0.00 102.95

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $37.40 (USD) for OSTK:NAS

Company OSTK:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.24 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.69 (USD)
Sales/Share $61.28 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.92 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$62.03 (USD) 0
$38.67 (USD) 0
$20.51 (USD) 0
$45.33 (USD) 0
$20.44 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 50.03
PB Ratio 4.45
PS Ratio 0.33
PCF Ratio 9.60
EV to EBITDA 10.64

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  OSTK:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.15

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  OSTK:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.74 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $36.30 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for OSTK:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for OSTK:NAS for 2021 of $90.00 (USD).

OSTK:NAS Overstock.com

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-3-29

Current Price: 65.12 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 0.76 1.94
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,362.00 2,623.20
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 90.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.93 4.00
Mean EBITDA 86.20 149.30
Mean Net Income 32.70 84.20
Mean Debt Outstanding 41.30 41.30
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 25.00 25.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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