O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

O’Reilly Automotive(ORLY:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Specialty Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$509.13 (USD) 03/30/2021

Weighted Valuation
$487.96 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 4.2%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $484.20 (USD)
Multiples: $461.35 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $518.33 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (ORLY:NAS USD)

Price 509.13
Range 504.05 – 512.24
52 week 287.25 – 509.13
Open 507.92
Vol / Avg. 517295/578138
Mkt cap 35.59B
P/E 21.64
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 23.53
Shares 69.91M
Beta 1.04

Company Description

O’Reilly is one of the largest sellers of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, serving professional and DIY customers (41% and 59% of 2020 sales, respectively). The company sells branded as well as own-label products, with the latter category comprising nearly half of sales. O’Reilly had 5,616 stores as of the end of 2020, spread across 47 U.S. states and including 22 stores in Mexico. The firm serves professional and DIY customers through its store network, and also boasts approximately 765 sales personnel targeting commercial buyers.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ORLY:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $484.20 (USD) for ORLY:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ORLY:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $484.20 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.67 $614.03 $397.93
Terminal Growth Rate 1.70 $406.02 $601.79
Tax Rate 0.23 $515.83 $452.58
Cash Flow 2,684,125,435 $455.77 $512.64
Capital Expenditures -500,586,600 $479.28 $489.13
Long Term Debt 1,886,501,000 $485.55 $482.86

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $587.89 (USD) for ORLY:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $402.20 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Five Below (FIVE:NAS), Ulta Beauty (ULTA:NAS), Tractor Supply (TSCO:NAS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS:NYS) and AutoZone (AZO:NYS).

Company ORLY:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $23.53 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.01 (USD)
Sales/Share $155.84 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $38.09 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $36.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$1,153.01 (USD) -27.9
$17.25 (USD) 0.0
$420.79 (USD) 26.3
$534.83 (USD) -3.9
$877.48 (USD) 21.6
ORLY:NAS Ratios Used Average Values FIVE:NAS ULTA:NAS TSCO:NAS DKS:NYS AZO:NYS
21.64 PE Ratio 49.00 86.59 99.04 27.75 13.55 18.08
253.76 PB Ratio 8.60 12.09 8.66 10.69 2.96 0.00
3.27 PS Ratio 2.70 5.44 2.83 1.96 0.75 2.52
13.36 PCF Ratio 16.21 29.18 21.50 14.91 4.62 10.85
15.06 EV to EBITDA 23.83 50.69 29.10 18.76 7.74 12.85

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $461.35 (USD) for ORLY:NAS

Company ORLY:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $23.53 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.01 (USD)
Sales/Share $155.84 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $38.09 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $36.83 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$533.88 (USD) 0
$71.12 (USD) 0
$480.42 (USD) 0
$673.88 (USD) 0
$547.45 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.69
PB Ratio 35.45
PS Ratio 3.08
PCF Ratio 17.69
EV to EBITDA 14.87

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ORLY:NAS for the last 10 years was  23.64

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ORLY:NAS and generated a book value of  $1.97 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $46.61 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ORLY:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ORLY:NAS for 2021 of $518.33 (USD).

ORLY:NAS O’Reilly Automotive

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 3 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-3-29

Current Price: 509.13 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 23.36 26.11
# EPS Analysts 5 5
Mean Revenue 11,746.30 12,390.90
# Revenue Analysts 4 4
Mean Target Price 518.33
Mean Cash Flow 27.32 42.49
Mean EBITDA 2,591.50 2,636.10
Mean Net Income 1,628.00 1,716.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 4,176.00 4,026.60
Mean Tax Rate 23.00 23.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.73
Mean Capital Expenditure 625.00 640.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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