Kaiser Aluminum (KALU:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Kaiser Aluminum(KALU:NAS)

Basic Materials:Aluminum

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$113.72 (USD) 03/19/2021

Weighted Valuation
$105.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 7.7%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $90.02 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $105.00 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (KALU:NAS USD)

Price 113.72
Range 108.05 – 115.81
52 week 50.50 – 125.70
Open 112.43
Vol / Avg. 528537/167392
Mkt cap 1.8B
P/E 62.83
Div/yield 2.68/0.02
EPS 1.81
Shares 15.81M
Beta 1.32

Company Description

Kaiser Aluminum Corp produces and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products primarily to industrial customers. The firm purchases primary and scrap aluminum, primarily from its five largest suppliers, and processes it into specialized value-added products. The company hedges its aluminum costs in an attempt to match commodity price changes between the time it purchases the raw materials and sells the finished products. Kaiser produces high-strength aluminum products for the aerospace industry, specialized aluminum extrusions for the automotive industry, and also sells products to customers in the general engineering industry. Nearly all of Kaiser’s revenue is generated in the US, with the remainder coming from Canada. The company’s operations are also located in the US and Canada.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for KALU:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $158.16 (USD) for KALU:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

KALU:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $158.16 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.51 $203.72 $127.75
Terminal Growth Rate 2.50 $130.47 $199.65
Tax Rate 0.26 $170.85 $145.47
Cash Flow 218,094,605 $148.77 $167.55
Capital Expenditures 340,000 $158.17 $158.15
Long Term Debt 368,600,000 $159.33 $156.99

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $143.96 (USD) for KALU:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $180.61 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Century Aluminum (CENX:NAS) and Alcoa (AA:NYS).

Company KALU:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.81 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $73.69 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $13.00 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.29 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -37.2
$103.81 (USD) -62.7
$57.01 (USD) 49.7
$265.89 (USD) 40.9
$57.47 (USD) -76.6
KALU:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CENX:NAS AA:NYS
62.83 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.46 PB Ratio 2.24 2.73 1.75
1.54 PS Ratio 0.77 0.92 0.62
8.75 PCF Ratio 24.62 34.55 14.70
14.27 EV to EBITDA 6.93 0.00 6.93

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $84.34 (USD) for KALU:NAS

Company KALU:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.81 (USD)
Book Value/Share $46.32 (USD)
Sales/Share $73.69 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $13.00 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.29 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$41.73 (USD) 0
$93.86 (USD) 0
$82.51 (USD) 0
$127.24 (USD) 0
$76.35 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.05
PB Ratio 2.03
PS Ratio 1.12
PCF Ratio 9.79
EV to EBITDA 9.21

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  KALU:NAS for the last 10 years was  1.94

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  KALU:NAS and generated a book value of  $46.32 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $90.02 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for KALU:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for KALU:NAS for 2021 of $105.00 (USD).

KALU:NAS Kaiser Aluminum

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-3-18

Current Price: 113.72 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 4.30 6.36
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 1,683.30 1,912.40
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 105.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.10 8.56
Mean EBITDA 166.30 211.70
Mean Net Income 69.00 101.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 142.00 113.70
Mean Tax Rate 25.00 26.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 56.00 44.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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