Navient (NAVI:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Navient (NAVI:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Navient(NAVI:NAS)

Financial Services:Credit Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$14.13 (USD) 03/26/2021

Weighted Valuation
$13.92 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Multiples: $14.24 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $13.27 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $14.25 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (NAVI:NAS USD)

Price 14.13
Range 13.85 – 14.20
52 week 6.04 – 14.13
Open 13.88
Vol / Avg. 1.64M/2.7M
Mkt cap 2.6B
P/E 6.67
Div/yield 0.64/0.05
EPS 2.12
Shares 183.77M
Beta 1.77

Company Description

Navient Corp is a financial services company that provides education loan management and business processing services to education, healthcare, and government clients at the federal, state, and local levels. The company operates in Delaware, western New York, northern Pennsylvania, Indiana, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, among other locations. The company has three primary reportable business segments: Federal Education Loans, Consumer Lending and Business Processing. The company’s fourth and other segment relates to financial results of the company’s holding company, including activities related to repurchases of debt, corporate liquidity portfolio, and unallocated overhead and regulatory-related costs.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for NAVI:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $19.31 (USD) for NAVI:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

NAVI:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $19.31 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 14.37 $21.14 $17.77
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $18.07 $20.79
Tax Rate 0.23 $20.55 $18.06
Cash Flow 558,584,761 $18.34 $20.27
Capital Expenditures 0 $19.31 $19.31
Long Term Debt 0 $19.31 $19.31

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $8.31 (USD) for NAVI:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $18.37 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CURO Group Holdings (CURO:NYS), Goldman Sachs BDC (GSBD:NYS), LendingClub (LC:NYS), Enova International (ENVA:NYS) and Green Dot (GDOT:NYS).

Company NAVI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.12 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.66 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.06 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $13.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$12.37 (USD) -66.3
$31.77 (USD) -75.3
$28.87 (USD) -49.9
($402.53) (USD) -73.1
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
NAVI:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CURO:NYS GSBD:NYS LC:NYS ENVA:NYS GDOT:NYS
6.67 PE Ratio 32.35 8.32 6.15 0.00 3.04 111.90
1.07 PB Ratio 2.40 4.63 1.26 2.18 1.41 2.52
1.63 PS Ratio 3.34 0.83 7.38 5.39 1.06 2.01
2.79 PCF Ratio 4.96 1.53 6.52 3.14 1.55 12.06
0.00 EV to EBITDA 6.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.70 9.38

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $14.24 (USD) for NAVI:NAS

Company NAVI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.12 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.66 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.06 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $13.22 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$14.48 (USD) 0
$12.75 (USD) 0
$14.47 (USD) 0
$15.27 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 6.83
PB Ratio 0.96
PS Ratio 1.67
PCF Ratio 3.02
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  NAVI:NAS for the last 7 years was  1.02

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  NAVI:NAS and generated a book value of  $13.01 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $13.27 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for NAVI:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for NAVI:NAS for 2021 of $14.25 (USD).

NAVI:NAS Navient

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2021-3-25

Current Price: 14.13 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 3.20 3.17
# EPS Analysts 2 2
Mean Revenue 1,737.30 1,615.10
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 14.25
Mean Cash Flow 4.23 4.19
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 535.50 443.90
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 23.80 23.90
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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