MPLX (MPLX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

MPLX (MPLX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

MPLX(MPLX:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas Midstream

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$25.52 (USD) 03/26/2021

Weighted Valuation
$28.33 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 11.0%

Valuation Models Comparables: $29.78 (USD)
Multiples: $28.64 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $28.33 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (MPLX:NYS USD)

Price 25.52
Range 25.03 – 25.73
52 week 10.06 – 26.36
Open 25.12
Vol / Avg. 3.07M/2.77M
Mkt cap 26.47B
P/E 17.01
Div/yield 2.75/0.11
EPS -0.80
Shares 1.04B
Beta 1.92

Company Description

MPLX is a partnership that owns both pipelines and gathering and processing assets with extensive holdings in the Appalachian region. The asset base is made up of pipeline assets dropped down from Marathon Petroleum, its sponsor, and gathering and processing assets from MarkWest, which it acquired in 2015. MPLX also acquired Andeavor Logistics in July 2019.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MPLX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $31.54 (USD) for MPLX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MPLX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $31.54 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.82 $37.87 $26.83
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $27.38 $37.12
Tax Rate 0.27 $34.41 $28.66
Cash Flow 5,547,065,000 $28.91 $34.16
Capital Expenditures -1,625,400,000 $30.83 $32.25
Long Term Debt 4,411,000,000 $31.75 $31.32

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $24.88 (USD) for MPLX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $29.78 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP:ASE), Cheniere Energy (LNG:ASE), Plains All American (PAA:NAS), Williams Companies (WMB:NYS) and ONEOK (OKE:NYS).

Company MPLX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.80) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.30 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.45 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 30.0
$30.98 (USD) -8.7
$18.96 (USD) 32.3
$24.39 (USD) -5.2
$23.32 (USD) 19.8
MPLX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CQP:ASE LNG:ASE PAA:NAS WMB:NYS OKE:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 66.29 18.36 0.00 0.00 144.47 36.04
1.93 PB Ratio 11.32 38.25 0.00 0.70 2.54 3.77
3.25 PS Ratio 2.42 3.34 2.00 0.29 3.87 2.59
5.93 PCF Ratio 10.24 11.78 14.77 4.49 8.54 11.64
30.88 EV to EBITDA 16.06 14.03 16.31 0.00 16.44 17.47

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $28.64 (USD) for MPLX:NYS

Company MPLX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.80) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.25 (USD)
Sales/Share $7.85 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.30 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.45 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$20.31 (USD) 0
$31.31 (USD) 0
$35.38 (USD) 0
$27.56 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 21.95
PB Ratio 1.53
PS Ratio 3.99
PCF Ratio 8.23
EV to EBITDA 18.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MPLX:NYS for the last 9 years was  2.38

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MPLX:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for MPLX:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for MPLX:NYS for 2021 of $28.33 (USD).

MPLX:NYS MPLX

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 1 0 4.5000 Outperform 2021-3-25

Current Price: 25.52 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 2.53 2.61 2.75
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 7,656.90 7,783.40 7,562.70
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Target Price 28.33
Mean Cash Flow 4.03 4.09 4.24
Mean EBITDA 5,157.80 5,199.40 5,385.50
Mean Net Income 1,797.60 2,750.90 2,857.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 19,965.20 19,491.00 18,702.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 8.91
Mean Capital Expenditure 964.70 786.20 873.60

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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