MGM Resorts Intl (MGM:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

MGM Resorts Intl (MGM:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

MGM Resorts Intl(MGM:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Resorts & Casinos

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$37.68 (USD) 03/26/2021

Weighted Valuation
$34.12 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 9.4%

Valuation Models Adjusted Book Value: $31.18 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $34.12 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (MGM:NYS USD)

Price 37.68
Range 36.52 – 38.24
52 week 10.58 – 41.23
Open 38.18
Vol / Avg. 7.77M/9.6M
Mkt cap 18.65B
P/E 13.41
Div/yield 0.16/0.00
EPS -2.02
Shares 494.85M
Beta 2.49

Company Description

MGM Resorts is the largest resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with 35,000 guest rooms and suites, representing about one fourth of all units in the market. The company’s Vegas properties include MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, and a 50% ownership stake in CityCenter. The Strip constituted approximately 49% of total EBITDAR in the prepandemic year of 2019. We estimate MGM will open a resort in Japan in 2026. The company also operates the 56%-owned MGM Macau casinos with a new property that opened on the Cotai Strip in early 2018.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for MGM:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $26.09 (USD) for MGM:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

MGM:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $26.09 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.60 $33.25 $20.43
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $21.24 $32.23
Tax Rate 0.13 $29.18 $23.01
Cash Flow 3,000,493,000 $23.41 $28.78
Capital Expenditures 7,797,600 $26.10 $26.09
Long Term Debt 12,786,420,000 $27.38 $24.80

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $69.17 (USD) for MGM:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $73.97 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Penn National Gaming (PENN:NAS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN:NAS), Caesars Entertainment (CZR:NAS), Red Rock Resorts (RRR:NAS) and Vail Resorts (MTN:NYS).

Company MGM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.02) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.14 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.45 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($3.02) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.76 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$96.70 (USD) -51.0
$48.21 (USD) -37.4
($42.25) (USD) -0.9
$141.95 (USD) 30.4
MGM:NYS Ratios Used Average Values PENN:NAS WYNN:NAS CZR:NAS RRR:NAS MTN:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.87 PB Ratio 7.36 6.33 0.00 3.63 11.57 7.89
3.61 PS Ratio 4.62 3.99 6.49 3.28 2.07 7.25
0.00 PCF Ratio 30.02 42.15 0.00 0.00 11.53 36.37
91.68 EV to EBITDA 186.83 339.49 0.00 347.24 22.92 37.67

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $18.89 (USD) for MGM:NYS

Company MGM:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($2.02) (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.14 (USD)
Sales/Share $10.45 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($3.02) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.76 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$31.91 (USD) 0
$15.94 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$8.83 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 24.75
PB Ratio 2.43
PS Ratio 1.53
PCF Ratio 9.66
EV to EBITDA 11.63

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  MGM:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.37

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  MGM:NYS and generated a book value of  $13.16 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $31.18 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for MGM:NYS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for MGM:NYS for 2021 of $34.12 (USD).

MGM:NYS MGM Resorts Intl

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 5 0 3.5714 Outperform 2021-3-25

Current Price: 37.68 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS -1.96 -0.03 0.06
# EPS Analysts 6 5 1
Mean Revenue 8,941.50 11,664.00 12,306.50
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 1
Mean Target Price 34.12
Mean Cash Flow 0.89 2.68 2.55
Mean EBITDA 1,273.40 2,624.80 2,913.10
Mean Net Income -1,240.20 -29.90 31.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 7,891.90 7,335.00
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 2.14
Mean Capital Expenditure 403.90 603.20 484.80

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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