Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Kimbell Royalty Partners(KRP:NYS)

Energy:Oil & Gas E&P

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$10.09 (USD) 03/24/2021

Weighted Valuation
$9.52 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 5.7%

Valuation Models Comparables: $9.52 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $15.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (KRP:NYS USD)

Price 10.09
Range 9.93 – 10.14
52 week 5.35 – 11.01
Open 9.97
Vol / Avg. 81364/150953
Mkt cap 602.36M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.87/0.07
EPS -4.85
Shares 59.7M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Kimbell Royalty Partners LP owns and acquire mineral and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties throughout the United States. The company’s basins and producing regions include has areas of interests in the Permian Basin, Mid-Continent, Terryville/Cotton Valley/Haynesville and Appalachian Basin. Its mineral and royalty interests are located in 28 states and in onshore basin across the continental United States and include ownership of 97,000 gross wells, including 41,000 wells in the Permian Basin. Its revenues are derived from royalty payments received from operators based on the sale of oil, natural gas and NGL production, as well as the sale of NGLs that are extracted from natural gas during processing.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for KRP:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $3.67 (USD) for KRP:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

KRP:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $3.67 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 16.34 $3.96 $3.41
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $3.42 $3.95
Tax Rate 0.00 $4.13 $3.32
Cash Flow 92,185,000 $3.13 $4.20
Capital Expenditures -60,575,833 $3.42 $3.91
Long Term Debt 0 $3.67 $3.67

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $11.41 (USD) for KRP:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $9.52 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Berry (bry) (BRY:NAS), Extraction Oil & Gas (XOG:NAS), NextDecade (NEXT:NAS), Torchlight Energy Res (TRCH:NAS) and Northern Oil & Gas (NOG:ASE).

Company KRP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($4.85) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.05 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.69 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.80 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($5.86) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$11.42 (USD) 0.0
$9.83 (USD) 0.0
$7.93 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
KRP:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BRY:NAS XOG:NAS NEXT:NAS TRCH:NAS NOG:ASE
0.00 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2.00 PB Ratio 8.94 0.62 0.00 3.91 22.30 0.00
3.75 PS Ratio 230.27 0.84 8.46 0.00 910.13 1.66
5.60 PCF Ratio 7.20 2.23 17.75 0.00 0.00 1.62
0.00 EV to EBITDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $29.77 (USD) for KRP:NYS

Company KRP:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($4.85) (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.05 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.69 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.80 (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($5.86) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$8.20 (USD) 0
$73.37 (USD) 0
$7.75 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 0.00
PB Ratio 1.62
PS Ratio 27.26
PCF Ratio 4.30
EV to EBITDA 96.27

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  KRP:NYS for the last 4 years was  1.62

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  KRP:NYS and generated a book value of  $0.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $0.00 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for KRP:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for KRP:NYS for 2021 of $15.00 (USD).

KRP:NYS Kimbell Royalty Partners

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2021-3-23

Current Price: 10.09 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 0.38 0.43 0.66
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 131.10 134.50 136.50
# Revenue Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Target Price 15.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.79 1.73 1.48
Mean EBITDA 90.70 93.30 89.50
Mean Net Income 17.00 20.40 25.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 135.20 110.80 86.80
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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