Home Depot (HD:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Home Depot (HD:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Home Depot(HD:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Home Improvement Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$297.18 (USD) 03/25/2021

Weighted Valuation
$294.25 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.0%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $299.65 (USD)
Multiples: $268.67 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $299.17 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (HD:NYS USD)

Price 297.18
Range 292.46 – 297.88
52 week 178.63 – 297.18
Open 293.03
Vol / Avg. 5.35M/6.04M
Mkt cap 320.08B
P/E 24.89
Div/yield 6.00/0.02
EPS 11.94
Shares 1.08B
Beta 1.00

Company Description

Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating nearly 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of distributor Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the maintenance, repair, and operations business, which is set to expand with the acquisition of HD Supply. The tie-up with Company Store also brought textile exposure to Home Depot’s lineup.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for HD:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $299.65 (USD) for HD:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

HD:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $299.65 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.89 $379.58 $246.38
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $251.26 $372.26
Tax Rate 0.24 $320.12 $279.18
Cash Flow 23,998,852,500 $284.15 $315.15
Capital Expenditures 31,000,000 $299.67 $299.63
Long Term Debt 20,943,000,000 $300.62 $298.68

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $763.64 (USD) for HD:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $192.32 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were JD.com (JD:NAS), General Motors (GM:NYS), Tesla (TSLA:NAS), Alibaba Group Holding (BABA:NYS) and Starbucks (SBUX:NAS).

Company HD:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $11.94 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.06 (USD)
Sales/Share $122.55 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.48 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.34 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$725.03 (USD) -19.8
$29.04 (USD) 0.0
$867.20 (USD) 53.5
$793.84 (USD) 9.5
$913.03 (USD) 10.3
HD:NYS Ratios Used Average Values JD:NAS GM:NYS TSLA:NAS BABA:NYS SBUX:NAS
24.89 PE Ratio 248.70 16.22 13.07 1000.61 25.27 188.33
97.02 PB Ratio 9.48 4.25 1.81 27.66 4.21 0.00
2.42 PS Ratio 7.08 1.07 0.67 21.99 6.19 5.47
17.01 PCF Ratio 47.73 18.77 4.90 116.70 19.00 79.29
17.06 EV to EBITDA 47.22 13.27 7.42 144.08 19.48 51.85

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $268.67 (USD) for HD:NYS

Company HD:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $11.94 (USD)
Book Value/Share $3.06 (USD)
Sales/Share $122.55 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $17.48 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $19.34 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$275.56 (USD) 0
$228.48 (USD) 0
$257.94 (USD) 0
$310.00 (USD) 0
$271.38 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.08
PB Ratio 74.60
PS Ratio 2.10
PCF Ratio 17.74
EV to EBITDA 14.03

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  HD:NYS for the last 10 years was  36.18

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  HD:NYS and generated a book value of  $3.06 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $110.82 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for HD:NYS. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for HD:NYS for 2022 of $299.17 (USD).

HD:NYS Home Depot

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
5 2 0 4.1250 Outperform 2021-3-24

Current Price: 297.18 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2022 2023 2024
Mean EPS 12.45 13.43 14.21
# EPS Analysts 6 6 2
Mean Revenue 133,200.90 137,686.50 140,269.20
# Revenue Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Target Price 299.17
Mean Cash Flow 14.18 16.06 17.85
Mean EBITDA 21,588.60 22,586.70 23,322.50
Mean Net Income 13,207.60 13,914.70 14,357.30
Mean Debt Outstanding 28,895.00 32,001.90 32,345.70
Mean Tax Rate 24.55 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 7.28
Mean Capital Expenditure 2,699.80 2,776.90 2,961.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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