Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI:NAS)

Technology:Semiconductors

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$10.73 (USD) 09/25/2020

Weighted Valuation
$11.47 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 6.9%

Valuation Models Comparables: $25.18 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $15.59 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $21.09 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $19.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (AAOI:NAS USD)

Price 10.73
Range 10.30 – 10.77
52 week 5.50 – 16.36
Open 10.38
Vol / Avg. 273683/656166
Mkt cap 244.36M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -3.31
Shares 22.77M
Beta 1.99

Company Description

Applied Optoelectronics Inc is a provider of fiber-optic networking products, primarily for the Internet data center, cable television, and fiber-to-the-home end markets. The company focuses on designing and manufacturing a range of optical communication products from components, to subassemblies, and modules to complete turn-key equipment. Demand for Applied Optoelectronics is driven by bandwidth demand in end markets. Through direct sales personnel, and manufacturing teams in the United States, China, and Taiwan, the company coordinates with customers to determine product design, qualifications, and performance.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AAOI:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($27.52) (USD) for AAOI:NAS

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $15.50 (USD) for AAOI:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $25.18 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CEVA (CEVA:NAS), EMCORE (EMKR:NAS), FormFactor (FORM:NAS), Rambus (RMBS:NAS) and Onto Innovation (ONTO:NYS).

Company AAOI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($3.93) (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.30 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.87 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($1.61) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.08) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -51.1
$22.64 (USD) -34.8
$41.93 (USD) -61.2
($7.01) (USD) -24.0
$0.00 (USD) 23.3
AAOI:NAS Ratios Used Average Values CEVA:NAS EMKR:NAS FORM:NAS RMBS:NAS ONTO:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 279.18 528.81 0.00 29.56 0.00 0.00
0.95 PB Ratio 2.00 3.31 1.32 2.67 1.57 1.15
1.09 PS Ratio 4.25 8.51 0.93 2.95 6.19 2.65
0.00 PCF Ratio 21.02 40.06 0.00 12.71 9.32 21.99
0.00 EV to EBITDA 73.13 111.21 0.00 13.41 132.64 35.25

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $15.59 (USD) for AAOI:NAS

Company AAOI:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($3.93) (USD)
Book Value/Share $11.30 (USD)
Sales/Share $9.87 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($1.61) (USD)
EBITDA/Share ($1.08) (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$16.90 (USD) 0
$14.28 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.20
PB Ratio 1.50
PS Ratio 1.45
PCF Ratio 14.24
EV to EBITDA 13.67

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AAOI:NAS for the last 7 years was  1.65

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AAOI:NAS and generated a book value of  $12.78 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $21.09 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AAOI:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AAOI:NAS for 2021 of $19.00 (USD).

AAOI:NAS Applied Optoelectronics

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2020-9-24

Current Price: 10.73 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021
Mean EPS -0.75 0.10
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 270.20 353.00
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 19.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income -16.40 2.40
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

Notice to User


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