Best Buy Co (BBY:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Best Buy Co(BBY:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Specialty Retail

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$107.63 (USD) 09/22/2020

Weighted Valuation
$102.42 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 4.8%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $95.65 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $115.99 (USD)
Multiples: $95.61 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $101.25 this stock is Overvalued

Company Overview (BBY:NYS USD)

Price 107.63
Range 105.91 – 108.25
52 week 50.69 – 117.37
Open 106.41
Vol / Avg. 1.68M/2.85M
Mkt cap 27.86B
P/E 17.50
Div/yield 2.00/0.02
EPS 5.75
Shares 258.83M
Beta 1.64

Company Description

Best Buy is one of the largest consumer electronics retailers in the U.S., with product and service sales representing 9.3% of the $450 billion-plus in personal consumer electronics and appliances expenditures in 2019 based on estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The company is focused on accelerating online sales growth, improving its multichannel customer experience, developing new in-store and in-home service offerings, optimizing its U.S., Canada, and Mexico retail store square footage, lowering cost of goods sold through supply-chain efficiencies, and reducing selling, general, and administrative costs.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BBY:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $95.65 (USD) for BBY:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BBY:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $95.65 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.69 $113.55 $82.42
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $83.91 $111.52
Tax Rate 0.23 $102.99 $88.31
Cash Flow 3,220,707,000 $89.02 $102.28
Capital Expenditures -684,600,000 $94.38 $96.92
Long Term Debt 1,384,000,000 $95.92 $95.38

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $115.99 (USD) for BBY:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $74.33 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY:NAS), Tractor Supply (TSCO:NAS), Ulta Beauty (ULTA:NAS), Five Below (FIVE:NAS) and AutoZone (AZO:NYS).

Company BBY:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.15 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $164.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $21.75 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.89 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$225.79 (USD) -59.9
$306.58 (USD) -52.6
$449.70 (USD) -84.4
$392.72 (USD) -60.9
$239.87 (USD) -49.2
BBY:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ORLY:NAS TSCO:NAS ULTA:NAS FIVE:NAS AZO:NYS
17.50 PE Ratio 36.71 22.35 24.25 45.89 72.73 18.35
7.37 PB Ratio 21.00 57.26 9.71 7.12 9.93 0.00
0.65 PS Ratio 2.73 3.23 1.80 2.00 4.26 2.35
4.95 PCF Ratio 18.77 14.30 11.51 19.03 35.75 13.24
8.85 EV to EBITDA 22.02 16.00 16.62 19.43 44.50 13.53

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $95.61 (USD) for BBY:NYS

Company BBY:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $6.15 (USD)
Book Value/Share $14.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $164.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $21.75 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.89 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$89.20 (USD) 0
$70.28 (USD) 0
$73.09 (USD) 0
$175.02 (USD) 0
$70.47 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.50
PB Ratio 4.81
PS Ratio 0.44
PCF Ratio 8.05
EV to EBITDA 6.47

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BBY:NYS for the last 10 years was  4.06

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BBY:NYS and generated a book value of  $14.73 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $59.82 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for BBY:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for BBY:NYS for 2021 of $101.25 (USD).

BBY:NYS Best Buy Co

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 4 1 2.8571 Hold 2020-9-21

Current Price: 107.63 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 6.62 6.60 7.09
# EPS Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Revenue 45,188.00 45,669.20 46,037.80
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 2
Mean Target Price 101.25
Mean Cash Flow 10.04 10.65 11.31
Mean EBITDA 3,240.40 3,070.60 3,126.90
Mean Net Income 1,818.50 1,675.70 1,758.80
Mean Debt Outstanding -1,703.00 -1,954.50 -3,272.20
Mean Tax Rate 23.60 23.60 23.60
Mean Growth Rate 8.63
Mean Capital Expenditure 742.70 788.20 699.90

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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