General Mills (GIS:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

General Mills(GIS:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Packaged Foods

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$59.98 (USD) 09/09/2020

Weighted Valuation
$60.50 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.9%

Valuation Models Comparables: $118.84 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $73.04 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $77.26 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $60.50 this stock is Fairly valued

Company Overview (GIS:NYS USD)

Price 59.98
Range 59.52 – 60.78
52 week 47.28 – 65.74
Open 60.13
Vol / Avg. 4.65M/2.49M
Mkt cap 36.64B
P/E 16.85
Div/yield 1.96/0.03
EPS 3.56
Shares 610.92M
Beta 0.59

Company Description

General Mills is a leading global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, Blue Buffalo, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2020, 76% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills’ products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products into the food-service channel and commercial baking industry.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for GIS:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $77.26 (USD) for GIS:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

GIS:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $77.26 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 4.26 $105.25 $59.92
Terminal Growth Rate 0.00 $61.36 $102.92
Tax Rate 0.19 $82.50 $72.02
Cash Flow 3,186,098,845 $72.21 $82.31
Capital Expenditures -601,760,000 $76.40 $78.13
Long Term Debt 8,871,900,000 $77.99 $76.54

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $78.98 (USD) for GIS:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $118.84 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Campbell Soup (CPB:NYS), McCormick & Co (MKC.V:NYS), Conagra Brands (CAG:NYS), Darling Ingredients (DAR:NYS) and Hormel Foods (HRL:NYS).

Company GIS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.56 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.19 (USD)
Sales/Share $28.74 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.98 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$88.62 (USD) -38.8
$56.77 (USD) 52.5
$73.45 (USD) 59.0
$75.44 (USD) -33.7
$95.17 (USD) -0.3
GIS:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CPB:NYS MKC.V:NYS CAG:NYS DAR:NYS HRL:NYS
16.85 PE Ratio 24.89 23.38 36.89 20.82 13.58 29.81
4.55 PB Ratio 4.30 5.36 7.49 2.22 2.09 4.36
2.09 PS Ratio 2.56 1.59 5.08 1.58 1.67 2.85
10.01 PCF Ratio 16.37 9.93 27.88 9.50 12.05 22.51
13.33 EV to EBITDA 15.92 11.27 26.30 14.54 7.80 19.66

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $73.04 (USD) for GIS:NYS

Company GIS:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.56 (USD)
Book Value/Share $13.19 (USD)
Sales/Share $28.74 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.99 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.98 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$69.98 (USD) 0
$80.66 (USD) 0
$59.19 (USD) 0
$73.17 (USD) 0
$82.18 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.66
PB Ratio 6.11
PS Ratio 2.06
PCF Ratio 12.21
EV to EBITDA 13.74

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  GIS:NYS for the last 10 years was  5.96

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  GIS:NYS and generated a book value of  $13.21 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $78.73 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for GIS:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for GIS:NYS for 2021 of $60.50 (USD).

GIS:NYS General Mills

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 4 1 2.5000 Underperform 2020-9-8

Current Price: 59.98 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 3.48 3.56
# EPS Analysts 5 5
Mean Revenue 17,137.80 17,321.70
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 60.50
Mean Cash Flow 4.26 4.79
Mean EBITDA 3,630.70 3,714.90
Mean Net Income 2,178.40 2,256.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 11,097.80 9,887.20
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 3.91
Mean Capital Expenditure 550.20 546.80

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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