Open Text (OTEX:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Open Text(OTEX:TSE)

Technology:Software – Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$43.58 (USD) / $56.90 (CAD) 09/04/2020

Weighted Valuation
$52.63 (USD) / $68.71 (CAD)

Use a conversion rate of 1.3055 from USD to CAD.

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 20.8%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $63.47 (USD) / $82.87 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $41.64 (USD) / $54.36 (CAD)
Multiples: $42.62 (USD) / $55.63 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $88.08 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (OTEX:TSE CAD)

Price 56.90
Range 56.19 – 58.49
52 week 42.64 – 63.28
Open 58.38
Vol / Avg. 955331/581310
Mkt cap 15.47B
P/E 50.35
Div/yield 0.70/0.02
EPS 0.86
Shares 271.88M
Beta 0.71

Company Description

Open Text Corp grew out of a technology project involving the Oxford English Dictionary at Canada’s University of Waterloo in the mid-1980s. Its software allows clients to archive, aggregate, retrieve, and search unstructured information (such as documents, e-mail, presentations). The company is based in Ontario, Canada.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for OTEX:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $63.47 (USD) / $82.87 (CAD) for OTEX:TSE

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

OTEX:TSE Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $63.47 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.11 $81.49 $51.46
Terminal Growth Rate 0.10 $52.57 $79.82
Tax Rate 0.32 $68.93 $58.02
Cash Flow 1,564,809,083 $59.61 $67.34
Capital Expenditures -78,293,000 $63.29 $63.66
Long Term Debt 2,145,276,000 $63.87 $63.08

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $68.43 (USD) / $89.34 (CAD) for OTEX:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $46.99 (USD) / $61.34 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Descartes Systems Gr (DSG:TSE), Enghouse Systems (ENGH:TSE), Constellation Software (CSU:TSE), Kinaxis (KXS:TSE) and Lightspeed POS (LSPD:TSE).

Company OTEX:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.86 (USD) / $1.12 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $14.83 (USD) / $19.36 (CAD)
Sales/Share $11.52 (USD) / $15.03 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.53 (USD) / $4.61 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $3.85 (USD) / $5.02 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$81.94 (USD) / $106.97 (CAD) -52.3
$143.15 (USD) / $186.88 (CAD) -52.3
$161.00 (USD) / $210.18 (CAD) -22.7
$136.37 (USD) / $178.04 (CAD) -69.9
$152.60 (USD) / $199.22 (CAD) -51.9
OTEX:TSE Ratios Used Average Values DSG:TSE ENGH:TSE CSU:TSE KXS:TSE LSPD:TSE
50.35 PE Ratio 95.28 115.39 49.12 70.05 146.55 0.00
2.94 PB Ratio 13.70 5.84 8.98 29.91 14.78 9.01
3.78 PS Ratio 13.98 14.44 8.79 6.42 18.29 21.95
12.33 PCF Ratio 42.15 44.18 35.95 23.06 65.41 0.00
13.91 EV to EBITDA 39.65 39.75 26.71 24.03 68.13 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $42.62 (USD) / $55.63 (CAD) for OTEX:TSE

Company OTEX:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.86 (USD) / $1.12 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $14.83 (USD) / $19.36 (CAD)
Sales/Share $11.52 (USD) / $15.03 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.53 (USD) / $4.61 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $3.85 (USD) / $5.02 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$30.02 (USD) / $39.19 (CAD) 0
$41.18 (USD) / $53.77 (CAD) 0
$42.80 (USD) / $55.88 (CAD) 0
$48.82 (USD) / $63.73 (CAD) 0
$50.25 (USD) / $65.60 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 34.91
PB Ratio 2.78
PS Ratio 3.72
PCF Ratio 13.81
EV to EBITDA 13.06

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  OTEX:TSE for the last 10 years was  2.82

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  OTEX:TSE and generated a book value of  $14.77 (USD) / $19.28 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $41.64 (USD) / $54.36 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 8 analysts that provide a valuation for OTEX:TSE. The 8 analysts have a concensus valuation for OTEX:TSE for 2021 of $67.47 (USD) / $88.08 (CAD).

OTEX:TSE Open Text

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
6 1 0 4.5556 Buy 2020-9-3

Current Price: 56.9 CAD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022
Mean EPS 3.94 4.10
# EPS Analysts 8 7
Mean Revenue 4,220.30 4,268.30
# Revenue Analysts 8 7
Mean Target Price 67.47
Mean Cash Flow 4.49 4.97
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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