Parker Hannifin (PH:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Parker Hannifin(PH:NYS)

Industrials:Specialty Industrial Machinery

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$211.77 (USD) 09/01/2020

Weighted Valuation
$214.85 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Discounted Cash Flow: $216.96 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $171.19 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation
According to Analyst consensus at $228.00 this stock is Undervalued

Company Overview (PH:NYS USD)

Price 211.77
Range 203.57 – 211.98
52 week 97.56 – 215.28
Open 205.00
Vol / Avg. 993644/917322
Mkt cap 27.23B
P/E 22.80
Div/yield 3.52/0.02
EPS 9.29
Shares 128.56M
Beta 1.69

Company Description

Parker Hannifin Corp is an industrial conglomerate operating two segments: diversified industrial, which serves a variety of end markets, and aerospace systems, which sells engine and actuation components. The diversified industrial segment consists of six groups, including engineered materials (sealing devices), filtration (filters and systems monitoring and removing contaminants from liquids and gases), fluid connectors (valves, couplings, and other fittings), instrumentation (flow manufacturing components and fluid control applications), and motion systems (hydraulic, pneumatic, and electromechanical components in industrial machinery and equipment). The segment boasts 15,500 independent distributors, and about 40% of its business occurs outside the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for PH:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $216.96 (USD) for PH:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

PH:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $216.96 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.03 $257.77 $186.31
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $190.03 $252.81
Tax Rate 0.20 $232.44 $201.47
Cash Flow 3,090,927,000 $204.69 $229.22
Capital Expenditures 33,893,200 $217.08 $216.84
Long Term Debt 3,248,964,000 $218.22 $215.69

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $276.06 (USD) for PH:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $314.20 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Emerson Electric (EMR:NYS), Graco (GGG:NYS), Lennox International (LII:NYS), The Middleby (MIDD:NAS) and Rockwell Automation (ROK:NYS).

Company PH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.29 (USD)
Book Value/Share $47.56 (USD)
Sales/Share $105.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $15.95 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $18.17 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$268.34 (USD) -36.6
$620.90 (USD) -28.5
$381.93 (USD) -20.2
$233.52 (USD) -23.7
$357.19 (USD) -19.9
PH:NYS Ratios Used Average Values EMR:NYS GGG:NYS LII:NYS MIDD:NAS ROK:NYS
22.18 PE Ratio 28.89 21.71 36.96 31.93 19.01 34.82
4.33 PB Ratio 13.06 5.30 9.42 0.00 2.81 34.70
1.95 PS Ratio 3.62 2.47 6.41 3.04 2.04 4.14
12.91 PCF Ratio 18.72 13.87 25.06 21.18 12.32 21.18
14.50 EV to EBITDA 19.66 13.54 25.16 22.10 12.98 24.52

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $195.53 (USD) for PH:NYS

Company PH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $9.29 (USD)
Book Value/Share $47.56 (USD)
Sales/Share $105.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $15.95 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $18.17 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$189.20 (USD) 0
$182.74 (USD) 0
$172.70 (USD) 0
$223.04 (USD) 0
$209.97 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.37
PB Ratio 3.84
PS Ratio 1.64
PCF Ratio 13.98
EV to EBITDA 11.56

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  PH:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.60

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  PH:NYS and generated a book value of  $47.56 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $171.19 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for PH:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for PH:NYS for 2021 of $228.00 (USD).

PH:NYS Parker Hannifin

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 4.0000 Outperform 2020-8-31

Current Price: 211.77 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2021 2022 2023
Mean EPS 10.42 12.89 13.65
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 12,542.00 14,788.50 15,066.40
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 228.00
Mean Cash Flow 14.29 15.16 17.63
Mean EBITDA 2,156.20 2,802.80 3,000.90
Mean Net Income 1,342.20 1,746.30 1,775.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 6,622.70 5,254.40 3,771.40
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate 8.18
Mean Capital Expenditure 238.30 265.40 301.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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