Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Boot Barn Holdings(BOOT:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$34.25 (USD) 30/08/2019

Weighted Valuation
$35.30 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 3.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $38.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $34.56 (USD)
Multiples: $28.69 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BOOT:NYS USD)

Price 34.25
Range 33.92 – 35.66
52 week 15.51 – 35.86
Open 35.27
Vol / Avg. 571862/678594
Mkt cap 918.37M
P/E 23.89
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 1.35
Shares 28.48M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Boot Barn Holdings Inc operates specialty retail stores. The company sells western and work‑related footwear, apparel and accessories in the United States. It is a single operating segment, which includes net sales generated from its retail stores and e-commerce websites.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BOOT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $3.69 (USD) for BOOT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BOOT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $3.69 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 17.99 $4.62 $2.87
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $3.04 $4.42
Tax Rate 0.19 $4.70 $2.67
Cash Flow 107,223,000 $2.75 $4.63
Capital Expenditures -24,714,400 $3.53 $3.85
Long Term Debt 258,136,000 $4.14 $3.23

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $34.56 (USD) for BOOT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $20.84 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF:NYS), Urban Outfitters (URBN:NAS), Buckle (BKE:NYS), Guess? (GES:NYS) and Children’s Place (PLCE:NAS).

Company BOOT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.68 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.67 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.94 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$47.35 (USD) 21.4
$24.67 (USD) -11.8
$18.12 (USD) -36.5
$10.84 (USD) 44.5
$45.23 (USD) 47.2
BOOT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ANF:NYS URBN:NAS BKE:NYS GES:NYS PLCE:NAS
23.78 PE Ratio 32.88 10.37 9.71 10.21 112.94 21.18
3.54 PB Ratio 2.55 0.88 1.68 2.39 2.33 5.45
1.24 PS Ratio 0.65 0.28 0.63 1.08 0.54 0.75
17.63 PCF Ratio 8.88 3.37 5.92 8.04 17.77 9.30
13.56 EV to EBITDA 15.72 6.46 9.92 9.48 40.47 12.29

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $28.69 (USD) for BOOT:NYS

Company BOOT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.44 (USD)
Book Value/Share $9.68 (USD)
Sales/Share $27.67 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.94 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$36.62 (USD) 0
$23.79 (USD) 0
$21.11 (USD) 0
$27.10 (USD) 0
$34.83 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 25.43
PB Ratio 2.46
PS Ratio 0.76
PCF Ratio 13.95
EV to EBITDA 12.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BOOT:NYS for the last 5 years was  2.46

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BOOT:NYS and generated a book value of  $9.32 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $22.90 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for BOOT:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for BOOT:NYS for 2020 of $38.00 (USD).

BOOT:NYS Boot Barn Holdings

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 0 4.0000 Outperform 2019-8-30

Current Price: 34.25 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 1.57 1.86 2.10
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 860.50 952.50 1,016.20
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 38.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.22 2.21 1.95
Mean EBITDA 97.20 107.00 104.10
Mean Net Income 46.30 55.20 63.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 24.60 25.10 25.20
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 31.50 27.10 29.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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