NetScout Systems (NTCT:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

NetScout Systems(NTCT:NAS)

Technology:Software-Application

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$24.82 (USD) 29/05/2019

Weighted Valuation
$30.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 20.9%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $30.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (NTCT:NAS USD)

Price 24.82
Range 24.65 – 25.07
52 week 21.85 – 31.40
Open 24.85
Vol / Avg. 265934/327827
Mkt cap 1.92B
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -0.93
Shares 77.46M
Beta 1.30

Company Description

NetScout Systems Inc is a provider of service assurance and cybersecurity solutions to enterprise and government networks. It bases its solutions on proprietary adaptive service intelligence technology, which helps customers monitor and identify performance issues and provides insight into network-based security threats. These solutions also deliver real-time and historical information, which provides insight to restore service and understand the quality of user experience. The company derives revenue primarily from the sale of network management tools and security solutions. The firm generates its revenue in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, India, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for NTCT:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $32.93 (USD) for NTCT:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

NTCT:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $32.93 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.49 $38.92 $28.36
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $28.93 $38.16
Tax Rate 0.05 $34.77 $31.09
Cash Flow 260,380,516 $31.10 $34.76
Capital Expenditures -19,253,200 $32.81 $33.05
Long Term Debt 300,000,000 $33.12 $32.74

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $40.01 (USD) for NTCT:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $39.02 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Rapid7 (RPD:NAS), Verint Systems (VRNT:NAS), Nuance Communications (NUAN:NAS), Qualys (QLYS:NAS) and CommVault Systems (CVLT:NAS).

Company NTCT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.93) (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.33 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.79 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) -28.8
$0.00 (USD) -62.0
$75.07 (USD) -29.1
$36.69 (USD) -65.9
$0.00 (USD) -24.9
NTCT:NAS Ratios Used Average Values RPD:NAS VRNT:NAS NUAN:NAS QLYS:NAS CVLT:NAS
0.00 PE Ratio 292.57 0.00 60.39 0.00 65.88 751.43
1.12 PB Ratio 10.33 30.00 3.16 2.51 9.87 6.13
2.59 PS Ratio 6.60 10.34 3.25 2.33 13.56 3.52
16.45 PCF Ratio 99.66 416.17 18.59 10.67 30.14 22.72
56.48 EV to EBITDA 46.13 0.00 21.22 38.68 38.40 86.24

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $31.29 (USD) for NTCT:NAS

Company NTCT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.93) (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.33 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.37 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.79 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$39.57 (USD) 0
$29.58 (USD) 0
$26.12 (USD) 0
$29.89 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 39.99
PB Ratio 1.50
PS Ratio 2.60
PCF Ratio 14.61
EV to EBITDA 15.93

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  NTCT:NAS for the last 10 years was  1.53

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  NTCT:NAS and generated a book value of  $25.46 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $38.94 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for NTCT:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for NTCT:NAS for 2020 of $30.00 (USD).

NTCT:NAS NetScout Systems

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-5-28

Current Price: 24.82 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.16 1.44 1.74
# EPS Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Revenue 911.50 905.00 930.50
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 30.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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