Walmart (WMT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Walmart(WMT:NYS)

Consumer Defensive:Discount Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$97.53 (USD) 29/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$97.99 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $105.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $95.14 (USD)
Comparables: $81.14 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (WMT:NYS USD)

Price 97.53
Range 97.04 – 97.67
52 week 82.40 – 105.56
Open 97.59
Vol / Avg. 7.22M/6.53M
Mkt cap 279.88B
P/E 43.15
Div/yield 2.08/0.02
EPS 2.26
Shares 2.87B
Beta 0.34

Company Description

Walmart Inc is the largest retailer in the world with around $500 billion in annual revenue and about 11,700 stores worldwide (including supercenters, wholesale warehouse clubs under the Sam’s Club banner, and small-format stores across 28 countries). It is also expanding into the growing e-commerce channel, as evidenced by its acquisition of Jet.com in 2016 and the 2018 purchase of a 77% stake in Flipkart. Sales through this channel represent about 5% of its total revenue. Groceries and consumables account for roughly 60% of sales, with the remainder from general merchandise including fuel, hardlines, apparel, entertainment, and home goods. The firm is known for an everyday low price approach.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for WMT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $95.14 (USD) for WMT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

WMT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $95.14 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.90 $124.08 $75.89
Terminal Growth Rate 0.90 $78.01 $120.81
Tax Rate 0.37 $103.80 $86.47
Cash Flow 33,645,205,900 $87.99 $102.28
Capital Expenditures -10,421,400,000 $92.96 $97.31
Long Term Debt 47,491,000,000 $95.96 $94.31

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $81.14 (USD) for WMT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $94.24 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Costco Wholesale (COST:NAS).

Company WMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.26 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $174.67 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.42 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.31 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$67.08 (USD) -46.7
$182.72 (USD) -27.0
$116.68 (USD) -42.6
$133.66 (USD) -43.3
$130.62 (USD) -25.5
WMT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values COST:NAS
43.80 PE Ratio 29.68 29.68
3.96 PB Ratio 7.31 7.31
0.57 PS Ratio 0.67 0.67
10.50 PCF Ratio 16.27 16.27
13.78 EV to EBITDA 15.71 15.71

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $71.60 (USD) for WMT:NYS

Company WMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.26 (USD)
Book Value/Share $25.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $174.67 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.42 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $8.31 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$40.85 (USD) 0
$78.15 (USD) 0
$86.94 (USD) 0
$80.85 (USD) 0
$71.19 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 18.07
PB Ratio 3.13
PS Ratio 0.50
PCF Ratio 8.58
EV to EBITDA 8.56

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  WMT:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.13

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  WMT:NYS and generated a book value of  $25.00 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $78.25 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for WMT:NYS. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for WMT:NYS for 2020 of $105.50 (USD).

WMT:NYS Walmart

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 6 0 3.3333 Hold 2019-3-28

Current Price: 97.53 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021 2022
Mean EPS 4.75 4.99 5.02
# EPS Analysts 6 5 1
Mean Revenue 523,060.20 544,472.40 567,176.90
# Revenue Analysts 5 4 1
Mean Target Price 105.50
Mean Cash Flow 8.91 9.61 9.11
Mean EBITDA 32,222.80 33,505.40 33,345.10
Mean Net Income 13,555.10 13,876.60 14,010.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 49,502.70 48,038.80 50,351.10
Mean Tax Rate 26.00 26.00
Mean Growth Rate 6.52
Mean Capital Expenditure 11,048.80 10,998.80 11,343.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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