Semtech (SMTC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report


Fundamental Valuation Report

Semtech(SMTC:NAS)

Technology:Semiconductors

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$52.94 (USD) 22/03/2019

Weighted Valuation
$52.26 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 1.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $58.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $42.90 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (SMTC:NAS USD)

Price 52.94
Range 52.38 – 55.30
52 week 37.85 – 59.95
Open 55.00
Vol / Avg. 639111/685599
Mkt cap 3.53B
P/E 57.54
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.92
Shares 66.6M
Beta 1.66

Company Description

Semtech Corp provides analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products to original equipment manufacturers and distributors. These products are found in enterprise computing, communications, high-end consumer, industrial, and other end markets. The firm’s products are organized into four groups: signal integrity, which includes broadcast video products; protection, which includes products to protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; wireless and sensing, which includes radio frequency products; and power and high-reliability, which includes voltage regulators and charge pumps. A majority of the firm’s revenue is generated in Asia-Pacific, with the rest coming from Europe and North America.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for SMTC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $35.19 (USD) for SMTC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

SMTC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $35.19 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.34 $40.74 $30.83
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $31.41 $40.00
Tax Rate 0.00 $37.32 $33.12
Cash Flow 279,622,289 $32.98 $37.40
Capital Expenditures -25,955,200 $35.02 $35.36
Long Term Debt 247,729,000 $35.38 $35.01

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $23.38 (USD) for SMTC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $35.55 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Amkor Technology (AMKR:NAS), Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP:NAS), Cree (CREE:NAS), Cirrus Logic (CRUS:NAS) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY:NAS).

Company SMTC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.92 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.62 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.89 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.03 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$18.93 (USD) -27.2
$24.82 (USD) -7.4
$22.89 (USD) -2.5
$34.56 (USD) 0.2
$37.03 (USD) -40.9
SMTC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values AMKR:NAS CCMP:NAS CREE:NAS CRUS:NAS CY:NAS
77.52 PE Ratio 20.58 16.57 23.61 0.00 25.89 16.24
5.18 PB Ratio 2.34 1.15 3.25 2.53 2.10 2.65
6.19 PS Ratio 2.57 0.49 4.52 3.53 2.02 2.31
21.50 PCF Ratio 14.70 3.17 19.99 29.86 8.31 12.17
26.77 EV to EBITDA 18.28 3.29 22.04 41.25 10.88 13.96

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $42.90 (USD) for SMTC:NAS

Company SMTC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.92 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.62 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.89 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.56 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $2.03 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$56.19 (USD) 0
$36.23 (USD) 0
$33.36 (USD) 0
$45.80 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 61.07
PB Ratio 3.41
PS Ratio 3.75
PCF Ratio 17.89
EV to EBITDA 0.00

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  SMTC:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.38

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  SMTC:NAS and generated a book value of  $10.46 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $35.32 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for SMTC:NAS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for SMTC:NAS for 2020 of $58.50 (USD).

SMTC:NAS Semtech

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 0 0 4.7500 Buy 2019-3-21

Current Price: 52.94 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.77 2.42
# EPS Analysts 3 2
Mean Revenue 591.60 699.50
# Revenue Analysts 3 2
Mean Target Price 58.50
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 119.60 168.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 17.00 17.00
Mean Growth Rate 12.50
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).
The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.
Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.
With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.
If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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