Ares Management (ARES:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ares Management(ARES:NYS)

Financial Services:Asset Management

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$23.60 (USD) 27/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$23.68 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 0.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $27.25 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $18.31 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ARES:NYS USD)

Price 23.60
Range 23.27 – 23.79
52 week 16.87 – 25.25
Open 23.64
Vol / Avg. 478979/621721
Mkt cap 2.43B
P/E 78.67
Div/yield 1.33/0.04
EPS 0.30
Shares 103M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Ares Management Corp is an asset management company based in the United States. It offers investors with investment-related advice and strategies for capital growth. Its business is organized into three business lines, namely Credit Group, Private Equity Group and the Real Estate Group. Its direct lending operations fetches the company the maximum share of revenues. The segment deals with direct lending across the US and Europe. Its Tradable Credit Group is a participant in the tradable, non-investment grade corporate credit markets and manages various types of investment funds. Its Private Equity Group manages corporate private equity commingled funds focused on the power and energy assets and the Real Estate Group segment manages public and private equity and debt.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ARES:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $103.18 (USD) for ARES:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ARES:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $103.18 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.58 $136.87 $80.77
Terminal Growth Rate 0.60 $82.91 $133.64
Tax Rate 0.17 $110.32 $96.05
Cash Flow 772,555,354 $97.18 $109.18
Capital Expenditures -18,166,400 $103.05 $103.31
Long Term Debt 2,968,127,000 $104.62 $101.74

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $18.31 (USD) for ARES:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $26.15 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AllianceBernstein Holding (AB:NYS), Artisan Partners Asset (APAM:NYS), Cohen & Steers (CNS:NYS), DoubleLine Inc Solns Fund (DSL:NYS) and Federated Investors (FII:NYS).

Company ARES:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.30 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.20 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($26.26) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.76 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$5.99 (USD) 72.0
$29.12 (USD) 0.0
$89.68 (USD) -82.7
($76.73) (USD) 0.0
$26.96 (USD) 0.0
ARES:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AB:NYS APAM:NYS CNS:NYS DSL:NYS FII:NYS
32.09 PE Ratio 19.98 11.25 15.14 0.00 41.52 11.99
3.57 PB Ratio 4.99 1.98 13.97 0.00 0.93 3.07
1.86 PS Ratio 8.00 10.19 1.32 0.00 18.27 2.23
0.00 PCF Ratio 11.15 11.31 4.25 0.00 13.14 15.89
16.25 EV to EBITDA 5.66 0.00 2.79 0.00 0.00 8.54

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $45.66 (USD) for ARES:NYS

Company ARES:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.30 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.84 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.20 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share ($26.26) (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.76 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$9.63 (USD) 0
$77.22 (USD) 0
$17.79 (USD) 0
$0.00 (USD) 0
$78.01 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 32.11
PB Ratio 13.23
PS Ratio 1.59
PCF Ratio 2.05
EV to EBITDA 16.38

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ARES:NYS for the last 4 years was  13.20

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ARES:NYS and generated a book value of  $5.79 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $76.41 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for ARES:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for ARES:NYS for 2019 of $27.25 (USD).

ARES:NYS Ares Management

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-26

Current Price: 23.6 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.54 1.92 2.28
# EPS Analysts 4 4 1
Mean Revenue 1,202.50 1,400.00 1,609.90
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 27.25
Mean Cash Flow 1.79 2.29
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 174.90 221.40 252.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 20.00 20.00
Mean Growth Rate 5.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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