BWX Technologies (BWXT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

BWX Technologies(BWXT:NYS)

Industrials:Aerospace & Defense

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$53.08 (USD) 26/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$53.66 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $54.33 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $52.66 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BWXT:NYS USD)

Price 53.08
Range 52.16 – 57.76
52 week 36.76 – 70.94
Open 54.75
Vol / Avg. 2.51M/692841
Mkt cap 5.22B
P/E 23.38
Div/yield 0.64/0.01
EPS 2.27
Shares 94.87M
Beta 0.90

Company Description

BWX Technologies Inc is a specialty manufacturer and service provider of nuclear components. Its core operations focus on designing and engineering naval nuclear components, reactors, and nuclear fuel for the United States government. Additionally, it provides uranium processing, environmental site restoration services, and other solutions in the nuclear power industry. Services may vary between operational, technical, environmental, or more generalized to help its customers make improvements. The company takes on major projects that need significant planning and resources for completion. Contracts may extend beyond one year, and provisions may be implemented to adequately represent costs.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BWXT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $38.87 (USD) for BWXT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BWXT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $38.87 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.07 $49.88 $31.51
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $32.00 $49.13
Tax Rate 0.19 $42.99 $34.76
Cash Flow 494,002,641 $35.09 $42.66
Capital Expenditures -80,643,200 $38.30 $39.45
Long Term Debt 443,836,000 $39.11 $38.64

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $67.23 (USD) for BWXT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $47.96 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AAR (AIR:NYS), Aerojet Rocketdyne Hldgs (AJRD:NYS), Astronics (ATRO:NAS), AeroVironment (AVAV:NAS) and Cubic (CUB:NYS).

Company BWXT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.27 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.12 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.69 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$232.77 (USD) -11.3
$18.67 (USD) 84.4
$24.76 (USD) 21.7
$23.36 (USD) -72.4
$68.77 (USD) -7.4
BWXT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values AIR:NYS AJRD:NYS ATRO:NAS AVAV:NAS CUB:NYS
24.69 PE Ratio 102.54 0.00 51.26 34.75 0.00 221.62
11.27 PB Ratio 4.53 0.00 7.65 3.09 0.00 2.86
2.66 PS Ratio 1.42 0.00 1.49 1.30 0.00 1.46
67.71 PCF Ratio 45.27 0.00 10.45 32.66 0.00 92.69
13.27 EV to EBITDA 18.69 0.00 10.81 16.07 0.00 29.18

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $52.66 (USD) for BWXT:NYS

Company BWXT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.27 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.12 (USD)
Sales/Share $17.44 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.69 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $3.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$73.00 (USD) 0
$66.16 (USD) 0
$50.05 (USD) 0
$16.26 (USD) 0
$57.83 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 32.16
PB Ratio 16.06
PS Ratio 2.87
PCF Ratio 23.71
EV to EBITDA 15.72

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BWXT:NYS for the last 8 years was  15.91

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BWXT:NYS and generated a book value of  $2.47 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $39.37 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for BWXT:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for BWXT:NYS for 2019 of $54.33 (USD).

BWXT:NYS BWX Technologies

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 1 0 4.3333 Outperform 2019-2-25

Current Price: 53.08 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.47 2.74
# EPS Analysts 3 2
Mean Revenue 1,894.60 2,025.60
# Revenue Analysts 2 2
Mean Target Price 54.33
Mean Cash Flow 3.14 3.40
Mean EBITDA 403.00 439.80
Mean Net Income 248.30 272.00
Mean Debt Outstanding 621.80 537.70
Mean Tax Rate 24.00 23.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 150.00 84.20

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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