American Homes 4 Rent (AMH:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Homes 4 Rent(AMH:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Residential

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$21.79 (USD) 25/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$21.36 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $22.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $20.39 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AMH:NYS USD)

Price 21.79
Range 21.78 – 22.16
52 week 19.05 – 23.24
Open 21.96
Vol / Avg. 2.89M/2.3M
Mkt cap 6.46B
P/E 272.38
Div/yield 0.20/0.01
EPS 0.08
Shares 296.65M
Beta 0.71

Company Description

American Homes 4 Rent is a real estate investment trust primarily focused on acquiring, operating, and leasing single-family homes as rental properties throughout the United States. The company’s real estate portfolio is largely comprised of single-family properties in urban markets in the Southern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. American Homes 4 Rent’s land holdings also represent a sizable percentage of its total assets in terms of value. The company derives the vast majority of its income in the form of rental revenue from single-family properties through short-term or annual leases. The firm’s largest geographical markets include Dallas, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; Atlanta, Georgia; and Charlotte, North Carolina in terms of the number of properties in each.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AMH:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $8.00 (USD) for AMH:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AMH:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $8.00 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.39 $10.76 $6.18
Terminal Growth Rate 1.40 $6.34 $10.50
Tax Rate 0.27 $9.21 $6.80
Cash Flow 699,115,093 $6.37 $9.64
Capital Expenditures -423,471,600 $7.06 $8.95
Long Term Debt 478,923,000 $8.08 $7.92

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $31.56 (USD) for AMH:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $29.62 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were American Campus (ACC:NYS), AGNC Investment (AGNC:NAS), Apartment Inv & Mgmt (AIV:NYS), Camden Prop Trust (CPT:NYS) and Equity Lifestyle Props (ELS:NYS).

Company AMH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.08 (USD)
Book Value/Share $17.76 (USD)
Sales/Share $3.53 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$62.83 (USD) -64.2
$48.70 (USD) 0.0
$14.84 (USD) 0.0
$40.22 (USD) 0.0
AMH:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ACC:NYS AGNC:NAS AIV:NYS CPT:NYS ELS:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 61.88 58.25 85.29 0.00 59.48 44.49
1.25 PB Ratio 3.54 1.80 1.02 3.69 2.69 8.49
6.27 PS Ratio 13.82 7.34 34.52 7.80 9.69 9.73
15.87 PCF Ratio 17.49 18.55 6.79 19.33 19.39 23.41
16.90 EV to EBITDA 21.36 19.77 0.00 19.79 20.69 25.20

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $74.70 (USD) for AMH:NYS

Company AMH:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.08 (USD)
Book Value/Share $17.76 (USD)
Sales/Share $3.53 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.39 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.88 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$277.87 (USD) 0
$20.36 (USD) 0
$21.67 (USD) 0
$23.58 (USD) 0
$30.01 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 3473.33
PB Ratio 1.15
PS Ratio 6.15
PCF Ratio 16.93
EV to EBITDA 15.94

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AMH:NYS for the last 5 years was  1.15

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AMH:NYS and generated a book value of  $17.70 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $20.39 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AMH:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AMH:NYS for 2019 of $22.00 (USD).

AMH:NYS American Homes 4 Rent

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-22

Current Price: 21.79 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.18 1.27
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 983.10 1,038.10
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 22.00
Mean Cash Flow 1.18 1.27
Mean EBITDA 616.40 652.00
Mean Net Income 91.70 116.70
Mean Debt Outstanding 2,003.40 2,201.70
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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