Autoliv (ALV:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Autoliv(ALV:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Auto Parts

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$81.23 (USD) 22/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$88.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 8.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $93.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Multiples: $80.50 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ALV:NYS USD)

Price 81.23
Range 79.80 – 81.35
52 week 67.97 – 115.08
Open 79.96
Vol / Avg. 423552/703618
Mkt cap 7.08B
P/E 18.85
Div/yield 2.46/0.03
EPS 2.18
Shares 87.15M
Beta 1.37

Company Description

Autoliv is the global leader in safety components and systems for the auto industry. Products include seat belts, frontal air bags, side-impact air bags, air bag inflators, and steering wheels. Research and development is a vital part of the company’s strategy, as Autoliv regularly spends about 5% of sales to maintain a competitive advantage.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ALV:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $49.62 (USD) for ALV:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ALV:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $49.62 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 10.11 $61.55 $40.67
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $41.77 $60.03
Tax Rate 0.38 $58.19 $41.04
Cash Flow 1,502,770,000 $42.79 $56.45
Capital Expenditures -505,200,000 $47.34 $51.89
Long Term Debt 1,544,800,000 $50.50 $48.73

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $36.56 (USD) for ALV:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $74.99 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Allison Transmission (ALSN:NYS), American Axle & Mfg Hldgs (AXL:NYS), BorgWarner (BWA:NYS), Dana (DAN:NYS) and Dorman Products (DORM:NAS).

Company ALV:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.63 (USD)
Sales/Share $98.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.32 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$22.82 (USD) 95.3
$36.27 (USD) -18.3
$45.06 (USD) -1.6
$10.36 (USD) -28.5
$63.85 (USD) 0.7
ALV:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ALSN:NYS AXL:NYS BWA:NYS DAN:NYS DORM:NAS
18.53 PE Ratio 10.47 0.00 4.14 15.43 11.83 0.00
3.69 PB Ratio 1.68 0.00 0.90 2.09 2.04 0.00
0.81 PS Ratio 0.46 0.00 0.23 0.82 0.32 0.00
11.86 PCF Ratio 5.33 0.00 2.25 7.73 6.02 0.00
7.97 EV to EBITDA 5.18 0.00 4.38 6.32 4.85 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $80.50 (USD) for ALV:NYS

Company ALV:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.18 (USD)
Book Value/Share $21.63 (USD)
Sales/Share $98.95 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $6.73 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $12.32 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$43.90 (USD) 0
$61.10 (USD) 0
$101.34 (USD) 0
$83.91 (USD) 0
$112.27 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.14
PB Ratio 2.83
PS Ratio 1.02
PCF Ratio 12.46
EV to EBITDA 9.11

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ALV:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.79

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ALV:NYS and generated a book value of  $21.63 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $60.43 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for ALV:NYS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for ALV:NYS for 2019 of $93.00 (USD).

ALV:NYS Autoliv

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 4 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-21

Current Price: 81.23 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 7.83 7.75 8.35
# EPS Analysts 2 1 1
Mean Revenue 9,232.80 9,315.00 9,646.00
# Revenue Analysts 2 1 1
Mean Target Price 93.00
Mean Cash Flow 11.37
Mean EBITDA 1,383.60 1,374.00 1,459.00
Mean Net Income 679.90 684.00 732.00
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 28.00 28.00 28.00
Mean Growth Rate 4.90
Mean Capital Expenditure 552.50

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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