Altus Group (AIF:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Altus Group(AIF:TSE)

Real Estate:Real Estate Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$23.85 (CAD) 22/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$29.30 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 22.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $34.11 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $25.20 (CAD)
Multiples: $23.04 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AIF:TSE CAD)

Price 23.85
Range 21.67 – 24.39
52 week 21.98 – 32.62
Open 22.00
Vol / Avg. 597854/89030
Mkt cap 928.74M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.60/0.03
EPS -0.48
Shares 38.94M
Beta 0.82

Company Description

Altus Group Ltd operates in the Canadian real estate sector. Its services can be summed up as advisory services, software and data solutions to the property and real estate industry. The company’s operations are structured into the Research, Valuation & Advisory (RVA), ARGUS Software, Property Tax Consulting, Geomatics and Cost Consulting and Project Management segments. The RVA segment is the company’s primary revenue driver. It realizes its revenue on a contractual basis by rendering services such as real estate valuations, litigation support, financial due intelligence, research and other real estate services. Altus generates most of its income from its domestic services. A part of its revenue is also derived from the United States, Europe and Asia Pacific.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AIF:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $47.77 (CAD) for AIF:TSE

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AIF:TSE Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $47.77 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 9.89 $56.50 $41.26
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $42.02 $55.47
Tax Rate -0.04 $50.29 $45.26
Cash Flow 152,824,722 $45.09 $50.45
Capital Expenditures -9,213,600 $47.64 $47.90
Long Term Debt 127,340,000 $47.93 $47.61

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $11.97 (CAD) for AIF:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $36.03 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Colliers International Gr (CIGI:NAS), FirstService (FSV:NAS), Morguard (MRC:TSE) and Tricon Capital Group (TCN:TSE).

Company AIF:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.48) (CAD)
Book Value/Share $9.26 (CAD)
Sales/Share $12.96 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.41 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $0.96 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (CAD) 41.5
$53.07 (CAD) -57.5
$19.13 (CAD) -63.1
$16.87 (CAD) -51.5
$11.53 (CAD) 3.7
AIF:TSE Ratios Used Average Values CIGI:NAS FSV:NAS MRC:TSE TCN:TSE
0.00 PE Ratio 22.18 33.68 42.33 5.98 6.75
2.66 PB Ratio 5.73 7.38 13.88 0.63 1.03
1.90 PS Ratio 11.91 1.00 1.61 1.82 43.22
17.51 PCF Ratio 14.35 11.92 24.61 6.52 0.00
18.23 EV to EBITDA 11.96 12.15 17.94 11.38 6.37

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $23.04 (CAD) for AIF:TSE

Company AIF:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.48) (CAD)
Book Value/Share $9.26 (CAD)
Sales/Share $12.96 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.41 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $0.96 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (CAD) 0
$25.94 (CAD) 0
$27.74 (CAD) 0
$23.07 (CAD) 0
$15.43 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 49.56
PB Ratio 2.80
PS Ratio 2.14
PCF Ratio 16.38
EV to EBITDA 16.01

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AIF:TSE for the last 10 years was  2.74

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AIF:TSE and generated a book value of  $9.20 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $25.20 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 9 analysts that provide a valuation for AIF:TSE. The 9 analysts have a concensus valuation for AIF:TSE for 2019 of $34.11 (CAD).

AIF:TSE Altus Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 1 0 4.3333 Outperform 2019-2-21

Current Price: 23.85 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.66 1.68
# EPS Analysts 8 3
Mean Revenue 565.30 590.10
# Revenue Analysts 8 3
Mean Target Price 34.11
Mean Cash Flow 2.46
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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