Air Canada (AC:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Air Canada(AC:TSE)

Industrials:Airlines

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$33.02 (CAD) 19/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$39.87 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 20.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $39.18 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $40.90 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AC:TSE CAD)

Price 33.02
Range 32.99 – 33.92
52 week 20.73 – 33.15
Open 33.38
Vol / Avg. 1.22M/1.25M
Mkt cap 8.94B
P/E 55.03
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.60
Shares 270.73M
Beta 0.87

Company Description

Air Canada is Canada’s largest airline, serving nearly 50 million passengers each year together with its regional partners. Air Canada provides over 1,500 daily flights to around 200 destinations and is a founding member of the Star Alliance. In 2018, the company generated CAD 18 billion in total revenue and posted 6.5% operating margins.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AC:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of ($16.32) (CAD) for AC:TSE

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $9.21 (CAD) for AC:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $18.10 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and Westjet Airlines (WJA:TSE).

Company AC:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.60 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $16.81 (CAD)
Sales/Share $57.01 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.28 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $6.59 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$12.06 (CAD) -61.6
$16.88 (CAD) 25.6
$28.34 (CAD) -84.2
$3.44 (CAD) -73.9
$29.97 (CAD) 45.6
AC:TSE Ratios Used Average Values WJA:TSE
26.49 PE Ratio 20.10 20.10
1.77 PB Ratio 1.00 1.00
0.52 PS Ratio 0.50 0.50
3.20 PCF Ratio 2.97 2.97
6.27 EV to EBITDA 4.55 4.55

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $23.00 (CAD) for AC:TSE

Company AC:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.60 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $16.81 (CAD)
Sales/Share $57.01 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $9.28 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $6.59 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$3.20 (CAD) 0
$48.58 (CAD) 0
$16.49 (CAD) 0
$21.19 (CAD) 0
$25.53 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 5.34
PB Ratio 2.89
PS Ratio 0.29
PCF Ratio 2.28
EV to EBITDA 3.87

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AC:TSE for the last 5 years was  2.75

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AC:TSE and generated a book value of  $14.90 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $40.90 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 11 analysts that provide a valuation for AC:TSE. The 11 analysts have a concensus valuation for AC:TSE for 2019 of $39.18 (CAD).

AC:TSE Air Canada

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 1 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-18

Current Price: 33.02 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 4.09 4.84 5.61
# EPS Analysts 11 9 3
Mean Revenue 19,461.00 20,362.50 20,931.00
# Revenue Analysts 11 9 3
Mean Target Price 39.18
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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