Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Blackstone Mortgage Trust(BXMT:NYS)

Real Estate:REIT-Diversified

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$34.19 (USD) 13/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$34.69 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Undervalued by 1.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $34.75 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $31.50 (USD)
Discounted Cash Flow: $40.91 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (BXMT:NYS USD)

Price 34.19
Range 33.68 – 34.24
52 week 30.48 – 35.44
Open 34.01
Vol / Avg. 2.27M/742535
Mkt cap 4.23B
P/E 13.68
Div/yield 2.48/0.07
EPS 2.50
Shares 123.76M
Beta 0.58

Company Description

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc is a real estate finance company primarily involved in the origination and purchase of senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America and Europe. The vast majority of the company’s asset portfolio is comprised of floating rate loans secured by first priority mortgages. These mortgages are mainly derived from office, hotel, and manufactured housing properties. A significant percentage of the collateralized real estate properties are located in New York, California, or the United Kingdom. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is managed by a subsidiary of The Blackstone Group and benefits from the market data provided by its parent company. Nearly all of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s revenue is generated in the form of interest income.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BXMT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $40.91 (USD) for BXMT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BXMT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $40.91 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.38 $50.27 $34.49
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $35.11 $49.37
Tax Rate 0.31 $43.87 $37.95
Cash Flow 431,703,860 $38.87 $42.96
Capital Expenditures 0 $40.91 $40.91
Long Term Debt 0 $40.91 $40.91

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $21.98 (USD) for BXMT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $34.77 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Apollo Commercial Real (ARI:NYS), Chimera Investment (CIM:NYS), CyrusOne (CONE:NAS), Cousins Properties (CUZ:NYS) and CoreCivic (CXW:NYS).

Company BXMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$105.36 (USD) -79.7
$36.00 (USD) -49.9
$22.78 (USD) -17.9
($54.40) (USD) -28.9
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
BXMT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ARI:NYS CIM:NYS CONE:NAS CUZ:NYS CXW:NYS
13.85 PE Ratio 42.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.14 0.00
1.29 PB Ratio 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 0.00
12.27 PS Ratio 8.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.11 0.00
13.63 PCF Ratio 16.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.56 0.00
0.00 EV to EBITDA 17.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.16 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $69.20 (USD) for BXMT:NYS

Company BXMT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.50 (USD)
Book Value/Share $26.74 (USD)
Sales/Share $2.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $2.53 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$33.42 (USD) 0
$30.88 (USD) 0
$25.70 (USD) 0
$34.93 (USD) 0
$221.08 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.37
PB Ratio 1.15
PS Ratio 9.14
PCF Ratio 13.80
EV to EBITDA 38.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BXMT:NYS for the last 7 years was  1.16

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BXMT:NYS and generated a book value of  $27.25 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $31.50 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for BXMT:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for BXMT:NYS for 2019 of $34.75 (USD).

BXMT:NYS Blackstone Mortgage Trust

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 5.0000 Buy 2019-2-12

Current Price: 34.19 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 2.59 2.70
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 426.00 450.80
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 34.75
Mean Cash Flow 2.70 2.70
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 334.70 367.80
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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