Credit Acceptance (CACC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Credit Acceptance(CACC:NAS)

Financial Services:Credit Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$435.99 (USD) 11/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$409.23 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 6.1%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $390.67 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $433.45 (USD)
Multiples: $416.45 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (CACC:NAS USD)

Price 435.99
Range 427.03 – 437.44
52 week 314.11 – 464.91
Open 429.65
Vol / Avg. 83438/110641
Mkt cap 8.19B
P/E 14.83
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 29.39
Shares 18.78M
Beta 0.62

Company Description

Credit Acceptance Corp is a consumer finance company that specializes in automobile loans. These loans are offered through a U.S. nationwide network of automobile dealers that benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who could otherwise not obtain financing. The company also benefits from repeat and referral sales, and from sales to customers responding to advertisements for financing, but qualify for traditional financing. The company derives its revenue from finance charges, premiums earned on the reinsurance of vehicle service contracts, and other fees. Of these, financing charges, including servicing fees, are by far the largest source of revenue.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for CACC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $820.47 (USD) for CACC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

CACC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $820.47 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.85 $1,064.06 $658.73
Terminal Growth Rate 0.90 $673.46 $1,041.83
Tax Rate 0.24 $882.95 $757.98
Cash Flow 1,213,524,006 $772.69 $868.25
Capital Expenditures -9,460,000 $820.12 $820.82
Long Term Debt 2,510,400,000 $827.15 $813.78

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $222.44 (USD) for CACC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $285.35 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Alliance Data Systems (ADS:NYS), Discover Financial (DFS:NYS), FirstCash (FCFS:NAS), Green Dot (GDOT:NYS) and Navient (NAVI:NAS).

Company CACC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $29.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share $104.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.83 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $33.40 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $47.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$507.66 (USD) -46.7
$364.47 (USD) -5.9
$109.71 (USD) 24.2
$113.01 (USD) -31.3
$556.16 (USD) -58.3
CACC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values ADS:NYS DFS:NYS FCFS:NAS GDOT:NYS NAVI:NAS
13.54 PE Ratio 17.27 10.37 0.00 24.17 0.00 0.00
3.79 PB Ratio 3.47 4.22 0.00 2.72 0.00 0.00
6.05 PS Ratio 1.67 1.26 0.00 2.08 0.00 0.00
11.92 PCF Ratio 9.24 3.42 0.00 15.06 0.00 0.00
12.38 EV to EBITDA 11.67 8.52 0.00 14.81 0.00 0.00

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $416.45 (USD) for CACC:NAS

Company CACC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $29.39 (USD)
Book Value/Share $104.94 (USD)
Sales/Share $65.83 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $33.40 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $47.67 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$407.52 (USD) 0
$435.41 (USD) 0
$349.07 (USD) 0
$349.70 (USD) 0
$540.55 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 13.87
PB Ratio 4.15
PS Ratio 5.30
PCF Ratio 10.47
EV to EBITDA 11.34

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  CACC:NAS for the last 10 years was  4.13

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  CACC:NAS and generated a book value of  $104.94 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $433.45 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 3 analysts that provide a valuation for CACC:NAS. The 3 analysts have a concensus valuation for CACC:NAS for 2019 of $390.67 (USD).

CACC:NAS Credit Acceptance

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 1 3.0000 Hold 2019-2-8

Current Price: 435.99 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 32.28 33.87
# EPS Analysts 3 3
Mean Revenue 1,406.40 1,528.80
# Revenue Analysts 3 3
Mean Target Price 390.67
Mean Cash Flow 41.45 42.77
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 625.40 658.50
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 24.00 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 16.00
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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