Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Arthur J. Gallagher(AJG:NYS)

Financial Services:Insurance Brokers

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$79.89 (USD) 11/02/2019

Weighted Valuation
$72.90 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 8.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $79.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $63.68 (USD)
Multiples: $71.55 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AJG:NYS USD)

Price 79.89
Range 78.58 – 79.98
52 week 64.77 – 79.89
Open 78.96
Vol / Avg. 823690/1.22M
Mkt cap 14.7B
P/E 23.50
Div/yield 1.64/0.02
EPS 3.40
Shares 184.06M
Beta 0.87

Company Description

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co provides insurance brokerage and consulting services to middle-market entities around the world. The majority of the company’s revenue comes from its brokerage segment, where it negotiates and places its customers with insurance companies that provide, among other types, property/casualty and health insurance. The company’s primary source of revenue in the brokerage segment is commissions from the insurance companies. The company also generates significant revenue in its corporate segment, which includes clean energy investment and other investment income. The company generates most of its revenue in the United States, with the remaining revenue coming primarily from Australia, Bermuda, Canada, the Caribbean, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AJG:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $51.45 (USD) for AJG:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AJG:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $51.45 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.95 $68.14 $40.29
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $41.23 $66.72
Tax Rate 0.27 $56.83 $46.06
Cash Flow 1,167,141,797 $47.26 $55.63
Capital Expenditures -98,380,000 $51.11 $51.79
Long Term Debt 2,785,700,000 $52.20 $50.69

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $109.28 (USD) for AJG:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $111.59 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Brown & Brown (BRO:NYS), Erie Indemnity (ERIE:NAS) and Marsh & McLennan (MMC:NYS).

Company AJG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.40 (USD)
Book Value/Share $24.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.25 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.11 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$96.51 (USD) -27.9
$173.64 (USD) -10.8
$126.89 (USD) -6.7
$88.27 (USD) 5.5
$90.44 (USD) 26.6
AJG:NYS Ratios Used Average Values BRO:NYS ERIE:NAS MMC:NYS
21.97 PE Ratio 28.38 0.00 29.47 27.30
3.06 PB Ratio 7.10 0.00 8.25 5.96
2.01 PS Ratio 3.41 0.00 3.80 3.01
18.17 PCF Ratio 26.18 0.00 33.80 18.56
16.16 EV to EBITDA 16.24 0.00 0.00 16.24

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $71.55 (USD) for AJG:NYS

Company AJG:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $3.40 (USD)
Book Value/Share $24.44 (USD)
Sales/Share $37.25 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.11 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $5.57 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$80.82 (USD) 0
$63.07 (USD) 0
$62.95 (USD) 0
$64.45 (USD) 0
$86.47 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 23.77
PB Ratio 2.58
PS Ratio 1.69
PCF Ratio 15.67
EV to EBITDA 15.53

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AJG:NYS for the last 10 years was  2.60

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AJG:NYS and generated a book value of  $24.45 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $63.68 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for AJG:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for AJG:NYS for 2019 of $79.50 (USD).

AJG:NYS Arthur J. Gallagher

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 2 0 3.6667 Outperform 2019-2-8

Current Price: 79.89 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 3.31 3.86 4.32
# EPS Analysts 3 3 2
Mean Revenue 6,821.30 7,339.90 7,867.70
# Revenue Analysts 1 1 1
Mean Target Price 79.50
Mean Cash Flow 4.97 6.01 6.70
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 639.40 730.60 840.30
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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