Ross Stores (ROST:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ross Stores(ROST:NAS)

Consumer Cyclical:Apparel Stores

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$90.80 (USD) 17/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$88.28 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.8%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $96.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $76.09 (USD)
Comparables: $89.50 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Fairly valued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (ROST:NAS USD)

Price 90.80
Range 89.25 – 90.88
52 week 74.84 – 103.33
Open 89.67
Vol / Avg. 2.41M/3.02M
Mkt cap 33.65B
P/E 23.32
Div/yield 0.64/0.01
EPS 3.55
Shares 370.59M
Beta 0.93

Company Description

Ross Stores is a leading American off-price apparel and home fashion retailer, operating more than 1,600 stores at the end of fiscal 2017 across the Ross Dress for Less and dd’s Discounts banners. Ross offers a variety of name-brand products and targets undercutting conventional retailers’ regular prices by 20%-70%. The company uses an opportunistic, flexible merchandising approach; together with a relatively low-frills shopping environment centered on a treasure-hunt experience, Ross maximizes inventory turnover and traffic, enabling its low-price approach. In fiscal 2017, 27% of sales came from the ladies’ department, 26% from home accents (including bed and bath), 13% from each of accessories, men’s, and shoes, and 8% from children’s. All sales come from the United States.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for ROST:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $76.09 (USD) for ROST:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

ROST:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $76.09 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.66 $95.95 $62.91
Terminal Growth Rate 2.70 $64.12 $94.11
Tax Rate 0.33 $82.30 $69.89
Cash Flow 2,810,693,600 $71.39 $80.80
Capital Expenditures -443,497,600 $75.36 $76.83
Long Term Debt 396,259,000 $76.15 $76.04

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $89.50 (USD) for ROST:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $66.50 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Gap (GPS:NYS), Lululemon Athletica (LULU:NAS) and TJX Companies (TJX:NYS).

Company ROST:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.25 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.32 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$101.76 (USD) -32.9
$71.09 (USD) 0.0
$98.70 (USD) 14.1
$82.07 (USD) 23.2
$77.02 (USD) 22.6
ROST:NAS Ratios Used Average Values GPS:NYS LULU:NAS TJX:NYS
19.58 PE Ratio 23.94 10.82 42.67 18.34
9.67 PB Ratio 8.27 2.86 11.45 10.50
2.09 PS Ratio 2.48 0.60 5.38 1.46
15.89 PCF Ratio 15.88 7.47 24.29 15.86
12.22 EV to EBITDA 12.19 4.96 20.59 11.01

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $83.94 (USD) for ROST:NAS

Company ROST:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $4.25 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.60 (USD)
Sales/Share $39.81 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $5.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $6.32 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$96.25 (USD) 0
$80.75 (USD) 0
$78.58 (USD) 0
$88.09 (USD) 0
$76.04 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 22.65
PB Ratio 9.39
PS Ratio 1.97
PCF Ratio 16.82
EV to EBITDA 12.03

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  ROST:NAS for the last 10 years was  9.34

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  ROST:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.40 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $78.39 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 5 analysts that provide a valuation for ROST:NAS. The 5 analysts have a concensus valuation for ROST:NAS for 2020 of $96.00 (USD).

ROST:NAS Ross Stores

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
4 5 0 3.8889 Outperform 2019-1-16

Current Price: 90.8 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 4.25 4.56 5.00
# EPS Analysts 5 4 2
Mean Revenue 15,151.60 15,971.80 17,070.40
# Revenue Analysts 4 3 2
Mean Target Price 96.00
Mean Cash Flow 5.54 5.67 6.37
Mean EBITDA 2,426.50 2,558.40 2,736.80
Mean Net Income 1,590.70 1,656.90 1,758.70
Mean Debt Outstanding -1,237.10 -1,481.30 -1,793.10
Mean Tax Rate 24.00
Mean Growth Rate 10.76
Mean Capital Expenditure 462.60 495.20 537.70

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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