Vista Outdoor (VSTO:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Vista Outdoor(VSTO:NYS)

Consumer Cyclical:Leisure

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$11.97 (USD) 14/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$15.00 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 25.3%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $15.00 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (VSTO:NYS USD)

Price 11.97
Range 11.75 – 12.28
52 week 9.97 – 19.94
Open 11.75
Vol / Avg. 444323/505973
Mkt cap 689.21M
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS -1.05
Shares 57.58M
Beta 0.00

Company Description

Vista Outdoor designs, develops, and manufactures outdoor sports and recreation products, and is domiciled in the United States. The company organises itself into two segments: shooting sports and outdoor products. Shooting sports, which contributes the largest proportion of company revenue, includes ammunition, long guns, and related equipment under brands such as Federal Premium, Blackhawk, and Hoppe’s. Outdoor products includes archery and hunting accessories, eyewear, golf products, hydration products, and stand-up paddle boards under brands including CamelBak and Bushnell. The company derives the vast majority of revenue domestically.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for VSTO:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $15.05 (USD) for VSTO:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

VSTO:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $15.05 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 5.65 $23.69 $9.27
Terminal Growth Rate 0.60 $9.76 $22.94
Tax Rate 0.27 $17.78 $12.32
Cash Flow 163,313,337 $13.06 $17.04
Capital Expenditures 225,800 $15.05 $15.05
Long Term Debt 1,120,950,000 $16.02 $14.08

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $43.25 (USD) for VSTO:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $23.61 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Callaway Golf (ELY:NYS), Acushnet Holdings (GOLF:NYS), International Speedway (ISCA:NAS) and SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS:NYS).

Company VSTO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Book Value/Share $20.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $38.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.09 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$51.63 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
$18.93 (USD) 0.0
$0.00 (USD) 0.0
VSTO:NYS Ratios Used Average Values ELY:NYS GOLF:NYS ISCA:NAS SEAS:NYS
0.00 PE Ratio 22.81 13.08 15.84 7.10 55.23
0.55 PB Ratio 2.52 1.93 1.78 1.18 5.19
0.29 PS Ratio 1.58 1.19 0.96 2.74 1.41
3.28 PCF Ratio 10.08 11.63 13.09 8.55 7.05
0.00 EV to EBITDA 9.08 8.14 8.74 8.06 11.38

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $23.53 (USD) for VSTO:NYS

Company VSTO:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share ($0.81) (USD)
Book Value/Share $20.48 (USD)
Sales/Share $38.82 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $3.46 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.09 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$0.00 (USD) 0
$26.21 (USD) 0
$28.63 (USD) 0
$38.24 (USD) 0
$1.03 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 24.35
PB Ratio 1.28
PS Ratio 0.74
PCF Ratio 11.05
EV to EBITDA 11.40

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  VSTO:NYS for the last 3 years was  1.27

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  VSTO:NYS and generated a book value of  $20.53 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $26.15 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for VSTO:NYS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for VSTO:NYS for 2020 of $15.00 (USD).

VSTO:NYS Vista Outdoor

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 0 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-10

Current Price: 11.97 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 0.30 0.55
# EPS Analysts 1 1
Mean Revenue 2,130.20 2,198.40
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 15.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.44 1.87
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 28.60
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 3.50 30.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 59.20 60.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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