James Hardie Industries (JHX:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

James Hardie Industries(JHX:NYS)

Basic Materials:Building Materials

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$11.19 (USD) 11/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$14.35 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 28.2%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $15.07 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $13.47 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $13.94 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (JHX:NYS USD)

Price 0.00
Range 0.00 – 0.00
52 week 0.00 – 0.00
Open 0.00
Vol / Avg. 0/0
Mkt cap 0
P/E 0.00
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.00
Shares 0
Beta 0.00

Company Description

James Hardie is the world leader in fibre cement products, accounting for roughly 90% of all fibre cement building materials sold in the U.S. It has nine manufacturing plants in eight U.S. states and five across Asia-Pacific. Fibre cement competes with vinyl, wood, and engineered wood products with superior durability and moisture-, fire-, and termite-resistant qualities. The firm is a highly focused single-product company based on primary demand growth, cost-efficient production, and continual innovation of its differentiated range. With saturation of the North American market in sight, the acquisition of Fermacell in early 2018, Europe’s leading fibre gypsum manufacturer, will provide Hardie with a subsequent avenue of growth.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for JHX:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $13.47 (USD) for JHX:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

JHX:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $13.47 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.90 $17.20 $10.99
Terminal Growth Rate 2.90 $11.17 $16.92
Tax Rate 0.16 $14.60 $12.34
Cash Flow 658,765,800 $12.34 $14.61
Capital Expenditures -150,280,000 $13.23 $13.71
Long Term Debt 466,300,000 $13.53 $13.42

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $5.65 (USD) for JHX:NYS. We also generated a valuation of $15.30 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were and CRH (CRH:NYS).

Company JHX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.41 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.15 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.23 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$4.34 (USD) -26.3
$2.61 (USD) 0.0
$3.98 (USD) 86.3
$4.38 (USD) 38.2
$8.22 (USD) 0.0
JHX:NYS Ratios Used Average Values CRH:NYS
28.63 PE Ratio 10.58 10.58
5.47 PB Ratio 1.21 1.21
2.25 PS Ratio 0.76 0.76
16.22 PCF Ratio 8.80 8.80
21.57 EV to EBITDA 12.18 12.18

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $14.69 (USD) for JHX:NYS

Company JHX:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.41 (USD)
Book Value/Share $2.15 (USD)
Sales/Share $5.23 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.72 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$11.17 (USD) 0
$14.17 (USD) 0
$18.44 (USD) 0
$17.54 (USD) 0
$12.14 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 27.24
PB Ratio 6.60
PS Ratio 3.53
PCF Ratio 24.23
EV to EBITDA 17.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  JHX:NYS for the last 2 years was  6.49

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  JHX:NYS and generated a book value of  $2.15 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $13.94 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for JHX:NYS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for JHX:NYS for 2020 of $15.07 (USD).

JHX:NYS James Hardie Industries

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
2 0 0 4.6667 Buy 2019-1-10

Current Price: 11.19 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 0.68 0.77 0.83
# EPS Analysts 3 3 1
Mean Revenue 2,545.60 2,724.80 2,879.70
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 15.07
Mean Cash Flow 0.77 0.84 0.94
Mean EBITDA 525.20 585.90 640.20
Mean Net Income 302.00 342.20 369.80
Mean Debt Outstanding 1,333.10 1,403.00 1,351.60
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 350.00 250.00 150.00

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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