NextGen Healthcare (NXGN:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

NextGen Healthcare(NXGN:NAS)

Technology:Healthcare Information Services

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$15.86 (USD) 09/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$17.24 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 8.7%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $20.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $13.03 (USD)
Adjusted Book Value: $17.36 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (NXGN:NAS USD)

Price 15.86
Range 15.56 – 16.12
52 week 12.31 – 22.96
Open 15.77
Vol / Avg. 427276/289833
Mkt cap 1.03B
P/E 935.50
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.04
Shares 64.67M
Beta 1.06

Company Description

NextGen Healthcare Inc is a United States-based company that provides healthcare solutions. The company offers technology and services platform supports for ambulatory and specialty practices of all sizes. It provides software, services, and analytics solutions to medical and dental group practices.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for NXGN:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $13.03 (USD) for NXGN:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

NXGN:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $13.03 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 11.19 $14.97 $11.50
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $11.73 $14.68
Tax Rate 0.27 $13.87 $12.18
Cash Flow 105,676,499 $12.37 $13.68
Capital Expenditures -10,088,800 $12.97 $13.08
Long Term Debt 48,000,000 $13.06 $12.99

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $20.60 (USD) for NXGN:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $29.23 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Evolent Health (EVH:NYS), HealthEquity (HQY:NAS), Inovalon Holdings (INOV:NAS), Omnicell (OMCL:NAS) and Premier (PINC:NAS).

Company NXGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.09 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.50 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$4.99 (USD) 10.5
$22.98 (USD) -9.2
$43.94 (USD) -24.4
$42.81 (USD) -30.3
$18.19 (USD) -25.5
NXGN:NAS Ratios Used Average Values EVH:NYS HQY:NAS INOV:NAS OMCL:NAS PINC:NAS
168.33 PE Ratio 55.48 0.00 56.27 0.00 54.68 0.00
2.76 PB Ratio 4.18 1.58 8.15 3.08 3.92 0.00
1.83 PS Ratio 5.30 2.78 13.89 4.03 3.23 2.58
18.18 PCF Ratio 52.06 147.15 37.53 25.55 41.30 8.76
21.38 EV to EBITDA 26.91 0.00 38.61 36.05 29.60 3.39

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $11.44 (USD) for NXGN:NAS

Company NXGN:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.09 (USD)
Book Value/Share $5.50 (USD)
Sales/Share $8.29 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $0.83 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $0.68 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$4.33 (USD) 0
$16.94 (USD) 0
$15.31 (USD) 0
$9.27 (USD) 0
$11.33 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 48.16
PB Ratio 3.08
PS Ratio 1.85
PCF Ratio 11.12
EV to EBITDA 16.77

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  NXGN:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.13

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  NXGN:NAS and generated a book value of  $5.55 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $17.36 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for NXGN:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for NXGN:NAS for 2020 of $20.00 (USD).

NXGN:NAS NextGen Healthcare

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
1 1 1 3.0000 Hold 2019-1-8

Current Price: 15.86 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020
Mean EPS 0.72 0.79
# EPS Analysts 2 1
Mean Revenue 530.40 553.60
# Revenue Analysts 1 1
Mean Target Price 20.00
Mean Cash Flow
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income 47.50 51.10
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate 14.60 23.00
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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