American Outdoor Brands (AOBC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

American Outdoor Brands(AOBC:NAS)

Industrials:Aerospace & Defense

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$13.47 (USD) 08/01/2019

Weighted Valuation
$13.21 (USD)

Overall Rating
Fairly valued to slightly Overvalued by 2.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $15.00 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: $10.52 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (AOBC:NAS USD)

Price 13.47
Range 13.12 – 13.54
52 week 9.00 – 15.75
Open 13.25
Vol / Avg. 709814/792428
Mkt cap 734.65M
P/E 26.04
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 0.37
Shares 54.54M
Beta -0.06

Company Description

American Outdoor Brands Corp is a manufacturer of firearms. It is a manufacturer, designer, and provider of consumer products for the shooting, hunting, and rugged outdoor enthusiast. The company manufactures handguns, modern sporting rifles, and handcuffs in the United States. It is also an active participant in the hunting rifle and suppressor markets. The group also provides shooting, hunting, and rugged outdoor products and accessories, including knives and cutting tools, sighting lasers, shooting supplies, tree saws, and survival gear. It has two reporting segments: Firearms which includes the firearms and manufacturing services divisions and Outdoor Products and Accessories which includes the outdoor products and accessories and electro-optics divisions.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for AOBC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $20.81 (USD) for AOBC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

AOBC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $20.81 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 6.61 $26.75 $16.84
Terminal Growth Rate 1.60 $17.07 $26.42
Tax Rate -0.14 $22.21 $19.41
Cash Flow 99,825,266 $18.84 $22.78
Capital Expenditures -34,015,800 $20.25 $21.38
Long Term Debt 171,505,000 $20.97 $20.66

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $10.52 (USD) for AOBC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $26.76 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were AAR (AIR:NYS), Aerojet Rocketdyne Hldgs (AJRD:NYS), Astronics (ATRO:NAS), National Presto Indus (NPK:NYS) and Sturm Ruger & Co (RGR:NYS).

Company AOBC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.61 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.84 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$16.41 (USD) -59.3
$27.81 (USD) -42.0
$17.29 (USD) -24.7
$29.96 (USD) -87.9
$16.11 (USD) 0.0
AOBC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values AIR:NYS AJRD:NYS ATRO:NAS NPK:NYS RGR:NYS
21.08 PE Ratio 26.90 16.52 45.75 34.50 18.56 19.14
1.61 PB Ratio 3.48 1.40 6.96 3.06 2.31 3.66
1.12 PS Ratio 1.51 0.69 1.33 1.30 2.32 1.91
6.97 PCF Ratio 18.09 33.67 9.33 32.43 8.21 6.83
8.98 EV to EBITDA 11.19 11.90 9.85 15.98 10.13 8.08

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $16.18 (USD) for AOBC:NAS

Company AOBC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $0.61 (USD)
Book Value/Share $8.00 (USD)
Sales/Share $11.46 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.84 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $1.44 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$8.95 (USD) 0
$30.12 (USD) 0
$16.03 (USD) 0
$15.29 (USD) 0
$10.53 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 14.68
PB Ratio 3.77
PS Ratio 1.40
PCF Ratio 8.29
EV to EBITDA 7.31

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  AOBC:NAS for the last 10 years was  3.67

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  AOBC:NAS and generated a book value of  $8.04 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $29.49 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 1 analysts that provide a valuation for AOBC:NAS. The 1 analysts have a concensus valuation for AOBC:NAS for 2020 of $15.00 (USD).

AOBC:NAS American Outdoor Brands

No analyst recommendation
Current Price: not available

No analyst consensus

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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