Valener (VNR:TSE) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Valener(VNR:TSE)

Utilities:Utilities-Regulated Gas

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$19.86 (CAD) 27/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$21.25 (CAD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 7.0%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $21.67 (CAD)
(in order of importance) Adjusted Book Value: $20.78 (CAD)
Multiples: $20.91 (CAD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Undervalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Fairly valued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (VNR:TSE CAD)

Price 19.86
Range 19.64 – 19.96
52 week 18.37 – 23.18
Open 19.75
Vol / Avg. 53279/50952
Mkt cap 772.23M
P/E 16.69
Div/yield 1.16/0.06
EPS 1.19
Shares 39.18M
Beta 0.26

Company Description

Valener Inc is an investment holding company engaged in the regulated energy business in the United States and Canada through Gaz Metro. Its core business operations involve natural gas distribution in Quebec and Vermont as well as electricity distribution in Vermont. The company through its subsidiaries holds the interest in wind farm business. It serves more than 200,000 customers in Quebec and over 310,000 customers in Vermont.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for VNR:TSE

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $0.00 (CAD) for VNR:TSE

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $26.41 (CAD) for VNR:TSE. We also generated a valuation of $30.77 (CAD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Chesapeake Utilities (CPK:NYS), Northwest Natural Holding (NWN:NYS), Suburban Propane Partners (SPH:NYS), Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX:NYS) and Transportadora de Gas (TGS:NYS).

Company VNR:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.19 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $20.21 (CAD)
Sales/Share $1.70 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.56 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $1.71 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$22.53 (CAD) -37.6
$47.63 (CAD) -48.6
$3.89 (CAD) 0.0
$15.68 (CAD) 26.1
$60.43 (CAD) 15.2
VNR:TSE Ratios Used Average Values CPK:NYS NWN:NYS SPH:NYS SWX:NYS TGS:NYS
17.27 PE Ratio 18.93 19.67 0.00 18.43 18.05 19.59
0.97 PB Ratio 4.08 2.56 2.46 2.43 1.98 10.96
11.59 PS Ratio 2.30 1.91 2.59 1.05 1.36 4.58
12.62 PCF Ratio 11.48 10.68 10.63 7.34 8.95 19.80
13.64 EV to EBITDA 35.41 12.93 133.40 9.29 9.99 11.46

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $20.91 (CAD) for VNR:TSE

Company VNR:TSE End Date Value
Earnings/Share $1.19 (CAD)
Book Value/Share $20.21 (CAD)
Sales/Share $1.70 (CAD)
Cash Flow/Share $1.56 (CAD)
EBITDA/Share $1.71 (CAD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$19.22 (CAD) 0
$20.90 (CAD) 0
$19.49 (CAD) 0
$21.42 (CAD) 0
$23.51 (CAD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 16.15
PB Ratio 1.03
PS Ratio 11.49
PCF Ratio 13.75
EV to EBITDA 13.77

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  VNR:TSE for the last 10 years was  1.05

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  VNR:TSE and generated a book value of  $19.86 (CAD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $20.78 (CAD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 6 analysts that provide a valuation for VNR:TSE. The 6 analysts have a concensus valuation for VNR:TSE for 2019 of $21.67 (CAD).

VNR:TSE Valener

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 5 0 3.1667 Hold 2018-11-26

Current Price: 19.86 CAD

Analyst Consensus
CAD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 1.37 1.43 1.59
# EPS Analysts 6 4 1
Mean Revenue
# Revenue Analysts
Mean Target Price 21.67
Mean Cash Flow 1.35 1.50 1.62
Mean EBITDA
Mean Net Income
Mean Debt Outstanding
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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