KLA-Tencor (KLAC:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

KLA-Tencor(KLAC:NAS)

Technology:Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$93.42 (USD) 13/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$115.10 (USD)

Overall Rating
Undervalued by 23.2%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $127.50 (USD)
(in order of importance) Discounted Cash Flow: $91.20 (USD)
Multiples: $125.71 (USD)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Fairly valued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Undervalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (KLAC:NAS USD)

Price 93.42
Range 92.73 – 95.44
52 week 85.13 – 122.39
Open 92.73
Vol / Avg. 2.45M/1.96M
Mkt cap 14.13B
P/E 15.94
Div/yield 2.52/0.03
EPS 5.10
Shares 153.08M
Beta 1.55

Company Description

KLA-Tencor Corp designs and manufactures yield-management and process-monitoring and control systems for the semiconductor industry. The systems are used to analyze the manufacturing process at various steps in a product’s development. The firm’s laser-scanning products are used for wafer qualification, process monitoring, and equipment monitoring. KLA-Tencor also provides inspection tools and systems for optical metrology and e-beam metrology. The company earns maximum revenue from korea, China, Japan, taiwan and others.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for KLAC:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $91.20 (USD) for KLAC:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

KLAC:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $91.20 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.87 $113.85 $75.14
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $76.87 $111.41
Tax Rate 0.44 $100.56 $81.84
Cash Flow 1,824,233,000 $85.92 $96.47
Capital Expenditures 2,774,600 $91.20 $91.19
Long Term Debt 3,018,567,000 $92.18 $90.21

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $65.01 (USD) for KLAC:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $59.61 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Applied Materials (AMAT:NAS), Entegris (ENTG:NAS), IPG Photonics (IPGP:NAS), Lam Research (LRCX:NAS) and Teradyne (TER:NYS).

Company KLAC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.88 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.41 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$123.35 (USD) -55.1
$39.40 (USD) 0.0
$80.04 (USD) 18.7
$83.24 (USD) -34.5
$85.72 (USD) 0.0
KLAC:NAS Ratios Used Average Values AMAT:NAS ENTG:NAS IPGP:NAS LRCX:NAS TER:NYS
15.62 PE Ratio 21.05 10.09 28.85 18.52 10.75 37.04
8.94 PB Ratio 3.85 4.74 3.46 3.28 4.13 3.63
3.45 PS Ratio 3.02 2.00 2.54 4.81 2.28 3.46
11.61 PCF Ratio 12.37 10.64 12.41 15.28 9.92 13.61
7.83 EV to EBITDA 8.24 6.18 10.57 8.83 5.98 9.62

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $125.71 (USD) for KLAC:NAS

Company KLAC:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $5.86 (USD)
Book Value/Share $10.24 (USD)
Sales/Share $26.51 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $7.88 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $10.41 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$122.84 (USD) 0
$154.33 (USD) 0
$107.23 (USD) 0
$119.47 (USD) 0
$124.67 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 20.96
PB Ratio 15.07
PS Ratio 4.04
PCF Ratio 15.16
EV to EBITDA 11.98

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  KLAC:NAS for the last 10 years was  14.78

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  KLAC:NAS and generated a book value of  $10.04 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $148.47 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for KLAC:NAS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for KLAC:NAS for 2019 of $127.50 (USD).

KLAC:NAS KLA-Tencor

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
5 1 0 4.5714 Buy 2018-11-12

Current Price: 93.42 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 8.96 9.38 9.95
# EPS Analysts 5 5 2
Mean Revenue 4,309.10 4,429.80 4,425.00
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 1
Mean Target Price 127.50
Mean Cash Flow 9.16 9.87 10.66
Mean EBITDA 1,762.50 1,822.40 1,771.10
Mean Net Income 1,390.60 1,399.00 1,346.90
Mean Debt Outstanding -449.00 -600.40 -382.90
Mean Tax Rate 14.00 15.00
Mean Growth Rate 2.91
Mean Capital Expenditure 87.90 83.90 71.70

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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