Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT:NAS) Fundamental Valuation Report

Fundamental Valuation Report

Ubiquiti Networks(UBNT:NAS)

Technology:Communication Equipment

This Report was generated using the valuation tools available on StockCalc.com. For a free 30 day trial click here.

Close Price/Date
$90.90 (USD) 06/11/2018

Weighted Valuation
$69.50 (USD)

Overall Rating
Overvalued by 23.5%

Valuation Models Analyst Consensus: $69.50 (USD)
(in order of importance)
Valuation Methods This company is:
Cash Flow: Overvalued on a Cash Flow Valuation
Comparable Company: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation
Asset: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation

Company Overview (UBNT:NAS USD)

Price 90.90
Range 88.41 – 92.62
52 week 55.28 – 98.92
Open 89.68
Vol / Avg. 274676/489002
Mkt cap 6.58B
P/E 36.22
Div/yield 0.00/0.00
EPS 2.51
Shares 72.41M
Beta 1.10

Company Description

Ubiquiti Networks Inc is a wireless and wireline network equipment provider for small Internet service providers and small- and midsize-business integrators. The company was founded in 2003 and went public in 2011. Ubiquiti reports in two operating segments (service provider technology and enterprise technology) across four geographies: North America; South America; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and Asia-Pacific.

Valuation Details

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for UBNT:NAS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of $52.62 (USD) for UBNT:NAS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

UBNT:NAS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $52.62 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 8.82 $64.24 $44.40
Terminal Growth Rate 3.00 $45.21 $63.10
Tax Rate 0.38 $57.63 $47.60
Cash Flow 470,504,000 $49.45 $55.78
Capital Expenditures -7,872,800 $52.56 $52.67
Long Term Debt 200,122,000 $52.75 $52.48

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of $57.82 (USD) for UBNT:NAS. We also generated a valuation of $44.94 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were CommScope Holding Co (COMM:NAS), Juniper Networks (JNPR:NYS), Netgear (NTGR:NAS), Viavi Solutions (VIAV:NAS) and Viasat (VSAT:NAS).

Company UBNT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
$105.56 (USD) -47.6
$11.32 (USD) 0.0
$25.32 (USD) 0.0
$70.25 (USD) 15.9
$84.22 (USD) 39.1
UBNT:NAS Ratios Used Average Values COMM:NAS JNPR:NYS NTGR:NAS VIAV:NAS VSAT:NAS
37.09 PE Ratio 42.06 23.13 60.98 0.00 0.00 0.00
21.35 PB Ratio 2.60 2.72 2.28 2.32 3.65 2.02
7.17 PS Ratio 1.95 1.02 2.26 1.23 2.97 2.27
21.96 PCF Ratio 18.03 8.85 12.61 14.55 39.67 14.48
19.67 EV to EBITDA 19.78 9.88 9.63 14.86 27.60 36.96

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  $63.90 (USD) for UBNT:NAS

Company UBNT:NAS End Date Value
Earnings/Share $2.51 (USD)
Book Value/Share $4.36 (USD)
Sales/Share $12.98 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share $4.24 (USD)
EBITDA/Share $4.26 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
$48.84 (USD) 0
$34.86 (USD) 0
$71.28 (USD) 0
$101.00 (USD) 0
$63.52 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 19.46
PB Ratio 7.99
PS Ratio 5.49
PCF Ratio 23.83
EV to EBITDA 14.92

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  UBNT:NAS for the last 7 years was  8.05

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  UBNT:NAS and generated a book value of  $4.26 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  $34.32 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 2 analysts that provide a valuation for UBNT:NAS. The 2 analysts have a concensus valuation for UBNT:NAS for 2019 of $69.50 (USD).

UBNT:NAS Ubiquiti Networks

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
0 2 0 3.0000 Hold 2018-11-5

Current Price: 90.9 USD

Analyst Consensus
USD Millions 2019 2020 2021
Mean EPS 4.00 4.31 5.36
# EPS Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Revenue 1,095.80 1,176.10 1,365.10
# Revenue Analysts 2 2 1
Mean Target Price 69.50
Mean Cash Flow 4.16 4.86 5.21
Mean EBITDA 386.40 422.40 456.80
Mean Net Income 317.60 352.20 381.90
Mean Debt Outstanding 71.50 -332.80 -605.60
Mean Tax Rate
Mean Growth Rate
Mean Capital Expenditure 10.30 11.40 12.30

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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