BT Group (BT:NYS) Fundamental Valuation Report


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BT Group 10.44 (GBP) / $13.90 (USD) Close Price as of 24/05/2018

Based on the analysis conducted in this report, BT Group, (BT:NYS) is found to be  Undervalued. Use a conversion rate of 1.33106165 from GBP to USD.

Company BT Group
Symbol:Exchange BT:NYS
Industry Communication Services:Telecom Services
Close Price/Date 10.44 (GBP) / $13.90 (USD) 24/05/2018
Weighted Average Valuation 11.97 (GBP) / $15.94 (USD)
Summary BT:NYS is found to be  Undervalued by 14.6% using the 2 valuation models shown below.
Valuation Models Used Analyst Consensus: 15.00 (GBP) / $19.97 (USD)
(in order of importance) Comparables: 7.43 (GBP) / $9.89 (USD)
Valuation Methods Analysis This company is:
Cash Flow Basis: Undervalued on a Cash Flow Valuation basis
Comparable Company Basis: Overvalued on a Comparable Valuation basis
Asset Basis: Overvalued on an Asset Valuation basis

Valuation Details

BT Group Valuations

Summary chart

 We have up to 6 valuation points for each company. Details are at the bottom of the report.

Discounted Cash Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for BT:NYS

Using a discounted cash flow model we generated an intrinsic value of 24.20 (GBP) / $32.21 (USD) for BT:NYS

Sensitivity Analysis

(showing how changes in the input variables impact the DCF calculation)

BT:NYS Current Values Valuation If Dropped * Valuation If Raised *
Calculated Value: $24.20 1% 5% 1% 5%
WACC (or Ke) 7.18 $32.63 $18.59
Terminal Growth Rate 2.20 $19.00 $32.01
Tax Rate 0.19 $26.99 $21.41
Cash Flow 7,740,014,800 $21.22 $27.18
Capital Expenditures -2,532,600,000 $23.30 $25.09
Long Term Debt 17,157,081,000 $24.63 $23.77

* Changes are absolute: ex WACC from 8% to 7%

Comparables Model

Using similar companies and price based ratios we generated a valuation of 7.43 (GBP) / $9.89 (USD) for BT:NYS. We also generated a valuation of 15.80 (GBP) / $21.02 (USD) using other metrics and comparables.
The comparable companies were Vodafone Group (VOD:NAS)

Company BT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 1.02 (GBP) / $1.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share 5.22 (GBP) / $6.94 (USD)
Sales/Share 11.96 (GBP) / $15.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 2.48 (GBP) / $3.31 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 0.00 (GBP) / $0.00 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor (%)
0.00 (GBP) / $0.00 (USD) -55.0
4.59 (GBP) / $6.11 (USD) 0.0
16.15 (GBP) / $21.50 (USD) -30.8
11.00 (GBP) / $14.64 (USD) -40.7
0.00 (GBP) / $0.00 (USD) -34.8
BT:NYS Ratios Used Average Values VOD:NAS
10.19 PE Ratio 0.00 0.00
2.00 PB Ratio 0.88 0.88
0.87 PS Ratio 1.35 1.35
4.20 PCF Ratio 4.43 4.43
4.55 EV to EBITDA 5.93 5.93

Multiples

Using a multiples approach we generated a valuation of  18.87 (GBP) / $25.11 (USD) for BT:NYS

Company BT:NYS End Date Value
Earnings/Share 1.02 (GBP) / $1.36 (USD)
Book Value/Share 5.22 (GBP) / $6.94 (USD)
Sales/Share 11.96 (GBP) / $15.92 (USD)
Cash Flow/Share 2.48 (GBP) / $3.31 (USD)
EBITDA/Share 3.38 (GBP) / $4.50 (USD)
Price Based on Comps Adjustment Factor
16.27 (GBP) / $21.65 (USD) 0
18.50 (GBP) / $24.63 (USD) 0
20.71 (GBP) / $27.56 (USD) 0
15.36 (GBP) / $20.45 (USD) 0
23.49 (GBP) / $31.27 (USD) 0
Ratios Ratio Average
PE Ratio 15.95
PB Ratio 3.55
PS Ratio 1.73
PCF Ratio 6.18
EV to EBITDA 6.95

Adjusted Book Value versus Historical Price to Book

The average the Price to Book ratio for  BT:NYS for the last 10 years was  3.73

We ran the Adjusted Book Value for  BT:NYS and generated a book value of  0.82 (GBP) / $1.09 (USD)
By multiplying these we get an adjusted valuation of  3.06 (GBP) / $4.07 (USD)

Analyst Data

In the Stockcalc database there are 4 analysts that provide a valuation for BT:NYS. The 4 analysts have a concensus valuation for BT:NYS for 2019 of 15.00 (GBP) / $19.97 (USD).

BT:NYS BT Group

Analyst Recommendation
Buy Hold Sell Rating
(of 5)
Guidance As Of
3 2 0 4.2000 Outperform 2018-5-23

Current Price: not available

Analyst Consensus
GBP Millions 2018 2019 2020
Mean EPS 1.38 1.34 1.39
# EPS Analysts 5 5 5
Mean Revenue 23,812.60 23,673.40 23,838.80
# Revenue Analysts 4 4 4
Mean Target Price 15.00
Mean Cash Flow 2.61 2.99 2.91
Mean EBITDA 7,501.20 7,453.00 7,573.40
Mean Net Income 2,578.30 2,792.60 2,879.40
Mean Debt Outstanding 10,072.70 10,261.50 10,951.50
Mean Tax Rate 20.70 20.00 20.00
Mean Growth Rate 4.66
Mean Capital Expenditure 3,462.30 3,684.40 3,861.10

Company Overview (BT:NYS USD)

Price 13.90
Range 13.58 – 13.92
52 week 13.68 – 21.07
Open 13.64
Vol / Avg. 3.27M/273470
Mkt cap 137.91B
P/E 10.19
Div/yield 0.63/0.07
EPS 0.96
Shares 9.92B
Beta 1.21
Summary chart

Detailed Company Description

BT Group PLC is a provider of telecommunications networks and services. It sells fixed-voice, broadband, mobile and TV products and services to consumers in the UK.

Explanation of Valuation Models

We have up to 6 valuation points for each company in the database.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation is a cash flow model where cash flow projections are discounted back to the present to calculate value per share. DCF is a common valuation technique especially for companies undergoing irregular cash flows such as resource companies (mining, forestry, oil and gas) going though price cycles or smaller companies about to generate cash flow (junior exploration companies, junior pharma, technology firms…).

The Price Comparables valuation is the result of valuing the company we are looking at on the basis of ratios from selected comparable companies: Price to Earnings, Price to Book, Price to Sales, Price to Cash Flow, Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

We have included the Other Comparables as a way to value companies that cannot be valued using Earnings based ratios. This technique is very useful for companies still experiencing negative cash flows such as mining exploration firms. We use Cash/Share, Book Value/Share, MarketCap, 1 Year Return, NetPPE as the ratios here. Each of these ratios for the selected comparable companies are averaged and multiplied by the values for the company we are interested in to calculate a value per share for our selected company.

Multiples are similar to Price comparables where we look at current or historic ratios for the company in question to assess what it should be worth today based on those historic ratios. We use the same 5 ratios as in the price comparables and value the company with its historic averages.

With Adjusted Book Value (ABV) we calculate the book value per share for the company based on its balance sheet and multiply that book value per share by its historical price to book ratio to calculate a value per share.

If we have Analyst coverage for the company we use the consensus target price here.

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